经济发展中的人口回旋空间:存在性和理论架构——基于人口负增长背景下对经济增长理论的反思和借鉴

Population Cushion in Economic Development: Existence and Theoretical Framework

中国人口发展到21世纪的第3个十年将达到最大规模,在持续低生育率下未来人口将持续负增长和走向深度老龄化。这意味着未来经济发展面临来自人口负增长的各种挑战。为促进经济持续增长和发展,需要人口经济学理论做出新的认识和判断,并为进一步科学探索经济发展的动力和途径提供理论依据。在此背景下,梳理人口与经济发展关系理论的演进史和实证分析的进展,反思已有人口与经济理论的局限性,借鉴已有相关理论给予的启示和隐喻,重新认识人口与经济发展之间的关系,初步论证人口规模在经济发展中回旋空间的存在性及其作用,提出人口回旋空间的概念和理论框架,并指出中国未来人口负增长下经济发展可利用的新动力和新途径。

China’s population will start to drop and age rapidly in the third decade of the 21st century.This negative population growth brings various challenges to China’s future economic development.To sustain the economic growth and development,it is necessary to explore theoretical basis for the driving forces and new paths for further economic development.Reflecting on the limitations of existing theories of population and economic development and drawing on their enlightenments and metaphors,this research demonstrates how population size interacts with economic development.Further,this study proposes the concept and theoretical framework of population cushion,which can act as a new driving force of China’s economic development in the context of negative population growth in the future.