气候变化对厦门市蚊密度影响的研究

Impact of climate change on mosquito density in Xiamen city

目的探讨厦门市气象因素对蚊媒密度的影响。方法选取厦门市2012-2022年的湖里区、集美区不同生境诱蚊灯法蚊密度监测数据,采用Spearman相关性分析方法分析成蚊密度与气象参数之间的相关关系,采用非线性回归法分析蚊密度与气象参数的数量关系。结果厦门市湖里区与集美区的蚊密度差异有统计学意义(t=9.814,P<0.05);气象因素中日最低气温、日平均气温、日最高气温、平均相对湿度、平均气压、平均风速、日照时间及降雨量差异均有统计学意义(t=-22.68、34.18、-18.84、15.18、-607.64、45.10、4.68,Z=-2.36;P均<0.05)。厦门市农户、公园、牲畜棚蚊密度与日最低气温、日平均气温、平均相对湿度及降雨量成正相关(r=0.281、0.263、0.207、0.109,0.277、0.267、0.212、0.150,0.218、0.194、0.173、0.136,P均<0.05),与平均气压及平均风速成负相关(r=-0.306、-0.111,-0.324、-0.107,-0.272、-0.096,P均<0.05);居民区与日最低气温、日平均气温、降雨量及平均相对湿度成正相关(r=0.250、0.226、0.109、0.188,P均<0.05),与平均气压成负相关(r=-0.296,P<0.05);而医院蚊密度与日最低气温、日平均气温、平均相对湿度成正相关(r=0.193、0.174、0.120,P均<0.05),与平均气压成负相关(r=-0.232,P<0.05)。厦门市蚊密度与气象参数的回归方程为Y=3.298-0.002x_(1)+0.004x_(2)+0.001x_(3)+0.001x_(4)-0.003x_(5)-0.015x_(6)+0.764x_(7),方程决定系数为0.634,表明模型拟合效果较好。结论厦门市成蚊密度与日最低气温、日平均气温、平均相对湿度、降雨量、平均气压及平均风速等气象因素有关,不同气象因素对不同生境蚊密度影响有所不同。

Objective To study the influence of meteorological factors on mosquito vector density in Xiamen city.Methods The monitoring data of mosquito density were selected in different habitats of Huli district and Jimei district in Xiamen city from 2012 to 2022.Spearman correlation analysis method was used to analyze the correlation between the adult mosquito density.Nonlinear regression was used to analyze the correlation between the adult mosquito density and the meteorological parameters.Results There was a statistically significant difference in mosquito density between Huli district and Jimei district of Xiamen city(t=9.814,P<0.05).There were significant differences in the daily minimum temperature,daily average temperature,daily maximum temperature,average relative humidity,average air pressure,average wind speed,sunshine time and daily rainfall between Huli district and Jimei district(t=-22.68,34.18,-18.84,15.18,-607.64,45.10,4.68;Z=-2.36;all P<0.05).The mosquito density in peasant household,parks and livestock sheds in Xiamen city was correlated positively with the daily minimum temperature,daily average temperature,average relative humidity and daily rainfall(r=0.281,0.263,0.207,0.109;0.277,0.267,0.212,0.150;0.218,0.194,0.173,0.136;all P<0.05),and was negative correlated with average air pressure and average wind speed(r=-0.306,-0.111;-0.324,-0.107;-0.272,-0.096;all P<0.05).The mosquito density in residential areas was correlated positively with the daily minimum temperature,daily average temperature,daily rainfall and average relative humidity(r=0.250,0.226,0.109,0.188;all P<0.05),and was negative correlated with average air pressure(r=-0.296,P<0.05).The mosquito density in hospitals was correlated positively with the daily minimum temperature,daily average temperature and average relative humidity(r=0.193,0.174,0.120;all P<0.05),and was negative correlated with average air pressure(r=-0.232,P<0.05).The regression equation of the mosquito density and meteorological parameters in Xiamen city was Y=3.298-0.002x_(1)+0.004x_(2)+0.001x_(3)+0.001x_(4)-0.003x_(5)-0.015x_(6)+0.764x_(7),R^(2)=0.634,indicate that the model fitting was good.Conclusions The density of adult mosquitoes in Xiamen city was correlated with the daily minimum temperature,daily average temperature,average relative humidity,daily rainfall,average air pressure and average wind speed.Different meteorological factors had different effects on mosquito density in different habitats.