地球系统模式理论与技术研究综述

Review on the Theories and Technologies of the Earth System Model

地球系统模式是理解过去气候与环境演变机理、预估未来潜在全球变化情景的重要工具,是集成地学相关研究的重要平台,已经成为国际前沿课题。地理信息科学的研究对象正在从传统的地球表层向整个地球系统发展,文章从地球信息科学的视角,对地球系统模式理论与关键技术进行综述分析,包括:地球系统模式关键概念及各分量关系、地球系统模式关键技术分析(包括数值模式与求解方法、参数化方法、高性能计算方法、海量数据存储方法等)、地球系统模式关键数据分析(包括美国、欧洲、日本和中国的再分析数据等)、地球系统模式预报方法分析(包括集合预报、多尺度预报、智能预报、高时空分辨率预报等)。最后,对地球系统模式研究的未来发展趋势及应用前景进行了展望。

Earth System Model(ESM)is a set of important tools to understand the mechanism of historical climate change and environment evolution,to forecast the future potential global change,and it is an important platform to integrate related researches about geosciences.The research object of geographic information science is developing from the traditional earth surface to the entire earth system.This paper summarizes and analyzes the theories and key technologies of the earth system model from the perspective of geographic information science.It includes basic concepts of the earth system model and their component relationships,the key technologies of the earth system model(including numerical model and solving methods,parametrization methods,high performance parallel computation methods,data storage methods for mass data,and so on),critical data of the earth system model(including the reanalysis data from the United States,Europe,Japan,and China),and the forecast methods of the earth system model(including ensemble forecast,multiscale forecast,intelligent forecast,high spatiotemporal resolution forecast).Finally,the paper prospects the future development trend and application prospect of the earth system model research.