欧洲碳市场推动电力减排的作用机制分析

Role of European Carbon Market in Power Sector Decarbonization

中国国家碳市场即将在"十四五"期间迎来里程碑式的发展,以发电行业为突破口上线交易并推广至更多行业,为中国实现2030年碳达峰和2060年碳中和目标作出贡献。欧洲碳市场(EU ETS)作为目前世界上最大的碳排放权交易体系,对欧洲电力行业近年来的绿色转型起到了相当积极的作用,这些经验对于中国碳市场下一步发展有一定的借鉴意义。介绍了欧洲碳市场的最新发展,分析了碳市场对欧洲电力行业减排的贡献。短期角度看,碳市场可以和自由化程度高的电力市场相结合,推动燃料转换。以实际交易数据和德国电力市场优先次序曲线为例,介绍碳排放较低的天然气发电替代煤炭发电来降低电力系统碳排放强度的作用机制。同时,高度互联的统一电网和碳价相结合,进一步推动可再生能源资源的优化配置。从长期看,碳价压低了化石能源的投资,推动了可再生能源的发展,与欧洲其他气候能源政策相结合,加速了退煤的进程,推动电力绿色转型。最后总结了欧洲碳市场和电力市场相互融合的经验对中国碳市场建设和电力行业低碳转型的启示。

China’s national emissions trading scheme will cover the power sector in the first stage and gradually expand to other industry sectors in the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The carbon market will push forward power system transformation and contribute to the 2060 carbon neutrality pledge.The EU ETS is currently the largest emissions trading scheme globally,and has played an active role in the green transition of the European power sector in recent years.The experience gained in the European carbon market will be a good reference for the development of China’s carbon market.This study examined the latest trend in the European carbon market in terms of emissions and carbon price,and analyzed the contribution of EU ETS to emissions reduction.In the short term,the carbon market would integrate with the liberalized power market in Europe,triggering fuel switching with less-emitting gas-fired generation replacing coal-fired generation,reducing the emission intensity of the European power system.Highly connected EU power grids also facilitated carbon pricing,resulting in higher renewable resource deployment across Europe.In the long term,strong carbon pricing would affect investment in fossil fuel power generation,divert more investments to renewables,and accelerate the coal phase out in Europe.Finally,the paper summarizes the experience gained during European carbon and power market integration,as well as the inspiration for the development of China’s carbon market and power system transition.