“两个替代”趋势下的欧洲跨国电力互联通道研究

Research on Cross-border Power Interconnection Channels in Europe Under Trend of Two Replacements

清洁替代和电能替代逐渐成为世界能源电力发展的趋势,欧洲在推动"两个代替"方面走在世界前列。在该趋势下,对未来欧洲电网的跨国互联需求和潜在互联项目进行分析及评估。首先,考虑欧洲"两个替代"程度日益深化,从电力需求和电力装机预测2个方面,构建未来欧洲可能出现的大规模清洁能源情景,并对该情景下的2种极限装机方案进行对比分析;其次,考虑输电通道边际收益,通过基于Zonal模型的输电需求分析,得出1种可行的欧洲跨国输电通道加强方案及装机方案;最后,计及未来欧洲新增输电需求,利用基于TOPSIS技术的输电项目成本效益评估方法,对未来各输电通道具有开发潜力的输电项目进行评估。所用方法与得出结果可为后续跨国跨洲输电需求分析及项目评估提供参考。

The clean-and electricity-replacement trends in the domain of energy and electricity generation have gained significant traction worldwide, especially in Europe. This study analyzes the cross-border interconnection demand and prospects of future projects for the European interconnected power grid. First, considering the popularity of the aforementioned trends in Europe, this study constructs a large-scale clean-energy scenario, which might materialize in Europe in the near future, from the standpoints of power-demand and installed-capacity forecasting. Two extreme installed-capacity schemes are analyzed in this scenario. Second, considering the marginal revenue generated by the transmission channels, a feasible scheme for strengthening cross-border transmission channels and optimizing power supply across Europe is devised via zonal-model-based analysis of the transmission demand. Finally, a cost-benefit evaluation of the transmission project is performed using the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS). The methods and results of this study could serve as a reference for subsequent cross-border and inter-continental transmissiondemand analysis and project evaluation.