电能时代的能源地缘政治初探

A Study on the Geopolitics of Energy in the Era of Electric Power

当前人类社会的主导能源正处于从石油、天然气、煤炭等化石能源向太阳能、风能、核能等非化石能源转型的历史进程之中。学界对这一进程中的能源地缘政治发展进行了探究,但尚无定论,更未有人系统分析未来转型完成后的能源地缘政治特征,而这恰是影响能源转型的重要前景之一。未来能源转型完成后,人类社会将进入电能时代。电能时代的能源地缘政治博弈依然存在,但与油气时代的具体表现有所不同,至少体现在两个方面,一是转移到与有效使用非化石能源高度相关的关键矿产资源领域,二是转移到与电能使用紧密相关的全球能源互联网领域。这将衍生至少4个方面的电能地缘政治特性:对各国政治经济合作提出了更高的要求;各国将围绕全球能源互联网尤其是骨干网架的规划建设展开博弈;全球能源互联网尤其是大电网关键技术、核心操作规程等将成为重要的能源地缘政治博弈对象;针对全球能源互联网的非传统安全将压倒传统安全成为国际社会不可忽视的重大议题。在此基础上,提出了加快全球能源互联网建设、推进能源转型的相应建议。

The dominant energy resource of the world is transforming from fossil fuels,such as oil,natural gas,and coal,to renewable fuels,such as solar energy,wind power,and nuclear energy.Scholars have discussed changes of energy geopolitics in energy transition but have not drawn any conclusions.Very few studies have discussed the future of energy geopolitics,although it is an important factor for energy transition.When this transition completed,the core energy of society will be electric power.The energy geopolitics in an electric power era will be different from oil and gas geopolitics.Energy geopolitics will shift to the competition of important mineral resources,which are strongly related to the effective use of renewable energy,and to the power grid industry,which will have at least four aspects based on geopolitical characteristics:there will be higher requirements for political and economic cooperation among nations;games will be played around the planning and construction of the global energy interconnection;the competition for key technologies and standards of the global energy interconnection and large power grids will become fiercer;and the non-traditional security of the global energy interconnection will become an important issue that should not be ignored even if traditional security is considered.This paper provides certain suggestions to accelerate the construction of the global energy interconnection and promote energy transition.