基于全球疾病负担数据库分析1990-2019年中国脑瘤发病趋势

Analysis of brain tumor incidence trend in China from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global Burden of Disease Database

目的探讨1990-2019年我国脑瘤发病变化趋势与特征,为脑瘤防治工作提供参考。方法选取1990-2019年全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库中国5~<95岁脑瘤发病数据,整理数据并应用Joinpoint回归模型分析发病趋势,计算年度变化百分比(APC)与平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。采用年龄-时期-出生队列(APC)模型分析发病率的年龄、时期和队列效应。通过R 4.1.3对脑瘤发病数据建立神经网络自回归(NNAR)模型,预测未来5年脑瘤发病率。结果1990-2019年我国脑瘤发病率呈上升趋势,男性和女性的AAPC值分别为1.802与2.396。APC模型分析显示,男性与女性的净偏移值分别为0.811%与1.332%,均>0。男、女性脑瘤的发病风险均随年龄和时期的增加而增加,较早出生队列的发病风险低于较晚出生队列。预测结果显示,2019年后我国脑瘤发病率将持续上升,2024年将达到7.707/10万。结论1990-2019年我国脑瘤发病率上升趋势明显,其中女性的上升趋势较男性更显著。年龄越大、生活时代越近人群其发病风险越大。预测结果提示,发病率在2020-2024年会持续上升,应加强对脑瘤防治工作的关注,开展好一级预防工作,降低我国脑瘤未来的发病率。

Objective To explore the trend and characteristics of brain tumors in China from 1990 to 2019,and to provide reference for the prevention and treatment of brain tumors.Methods The incidence data of brain tumors aged 5-<95 years in China from 1990 to 2019 in the Global Burden of Disease Database were extracted and sorted out,and the incidence trend was analyzed by using Joinpoint regression model,and the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual change percentage(AAPC)values were calculated.APC model was used to analyze the age,period and cohort effect of incidence.A neural network autoregressive model was established using by R(4.1.3)software to predict the incidence of brain tumors in the next five years.Results From 1990 to 2019,the incidence of brain tumors in China showed an increasing trend,with AAPC values of 1.802 and 2.396 for men and women respectively.APC model analysis showed that the net drift values of male and female were 0.811% and 1.332% respectively,both of which were greater than 0.The risk of brain tumors in both males and females increased with age and period,and the risk of early birth cohort was lower than that of late birth cohort.The prediction results showed that the incidence of brain tumors in China will continue to rise after 2019,reaching 7.707/100000 in 2024.Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,the incidence of brain tumors in China showed an obvious upward trend,especially in women.The older the people are,the closer to the current life,the greater the risk of the disease.The prediction results suggest that the incidence of brain tumors will continue to increase in the next five years.More attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of brain tumors in China,primary prevention work should be carried out to reduce the future incidence of brain tumors in China.