青海省部门尺度的资本存量估算

Sector-scale capital stock measurement of Qinghai Province

经济的快速发展伴随着承灾体经济暴露价值的增加.区域资本存量作为替代GDP衡量经济暴露价值的重要指标,其准确核算是灾害风险评估的前提和基础.已有研究估算了区域尺度的资本存量,但部门存量更能体现经济暴露的产业结构.本文针对目前我国部门尺度资本存量研究数据缺乏和衡量部门间经济暴露价值的差异指标不足的现状,采用永续盘存法,估算了2003—2020年青海省长时间序列17个部门的资本存量.结果显示:(1)2003—2020年间,青海省17个部门资本存量的总量逐年增加,2020年的总量是2003年的10.3倍.资本存量占比最多的部门分别是工业,房地产业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业,占比在60%以上.(2)增速快的部门分布主要集中在第三产业部门的金融业,租赁和商务服务业,居民服务、修理和其他服务业,住宿和餐饮业,科学研究和技术服务业,这些部门属于第三产业中资本存量占比小的部门.研究结果对于警惕产业部门差异的潜在灾害损失风险,做到防患于未然有一定的参考价值.

The rapid economic development is usually accompanied by an increase in the exposure value in the disaster area.As an important indicator to measure the value of economic exposure instead of GDP,the accurate accounting of regional capital stock is the premise and foundation of disaster risk assessment.Existing studies have estimated the capital stock at the regional scale,but the sector stock can better reflect the industrial structure of economic exposure.Due to the lack of research data on sectoral-scale capital stock and variance indicators to measure the value of economic exposure between sectors in China,in this paper,the perpetual inventory method was used to estimate the capital stock of 17sectors in Qinghai Province for a long time series from 2003to 2020.The results show that(1)from 2003to 2020,the total capital stock of 17sectors in Qinghai Province increased year by year,and the total in 2020is 10.3times that in 2003.The sectors with the largest percentage of capital stock are industry,real estate,transportation,warehousing and postal services,water conservancy,environment and public facility management,accounting for more than 60%.(2)the distribution of fast-growing sectors is mainly concentrated in the financial industry,leasing and business services,residential services,repairs and other services,accommodation and catering,scientific research and technical services in the tertiary sector,which belongs to the sectors with a small proportion of capital stock in the tertiary industry.The results of the study have certain reference value for us to be alert to the potential disaster loss risks of industrial sector differences and to prevent them before they occur.