基于时空计量的新兴科技概念传播扩散研究——以“元宇宙”为例

A Study on the Propagation and Diffusion of Emerging Concepts Based on Spatiotemporal Metrology: A Case Study of the “Metaverse”

【目的/意义】针对“元宇宙”这一新兴科技概念,辨明其时间、空间上的传播规律,挖掘影响其传播扩散的时序性和地缘性因素,为新概念的扩散提供指导建议。【方法/过程】采集社交媒体数据,针对“元宇宙”概念传播过程中34个省级行政区的传播热度,基于创新扩散理论和时间流分析,以及空间计量学方法,进行时序分析、空间关联分析、回归分析、因子相关性分析。【结果/结论】不同地区热度与“黑河-腾冲线”吻合,北京市、沿海省份属于早期传播者,中部内陆省份和东北地区热度次之,新疆、西藏、内蒙等地区跟进较慢。宣传热度和网民讨论热度呈现显著的区域聚集性,官方概念宣传对网民的关注度呈现出6-10日的滞后影响。此外,地区GDP、中青年人口占比、受教育程度、互联网普及率、企业数量、高科技企业数量、元宇宙相关企业数量等因素正向影响概念扩散热度。【创新/局限】从时间与空间双重视角分析了新兴科技概念的传播扩散规律,但聚焦网络公开数据,缺乏线下多渠道样本,且分析指标有待增加和细化。

【Purpose/significance】Aiming at the new concept"metaverse",this study analyzed its propagation pattern in time and space,summarized the spatio-temporal characteristics of the diffusion of the new concept,and explored the geographical factors affecting its propagation,which could provide instruction for innovation diffusion.【Method/process】Collecting social media data,this study conducted time sequence analysis,spatial correlation analysis,regression analysis and factor correlation analysis based on innovation diffusion theory,time flow analysis and spatial econometric method for the communication heat of 34 provincial administrative regions in the process of"metaverse"concept dissemination.【Result/conclusion】The heat in different regions is consistent with the"HeiheTengchong line".Beijing and coastal provinces are early disseminators,followed by central inland provinces and northeast regions,and Xinjiang,Tibet,Inner Mongolia and other regions follow slowly.Among them,the popularity of government propaganda and the popularity of netizens’discussion show significant regional aggregation,and the diffusion of the concept of neighboring regions shows a positive correlation to a low and medium degree,while media articles have no spatial correlation.The official concept publicity has a lag effect on the attention of netizens from 6 to 10 days.In addition,regional GDP,proportion of young and middle-aged population,proportion of college education and above,Internet penetration rate,number of enterprises,number of high-tech enterprises,number of enterprises related to the meta-universe and other factors positively affect the diffusion of the concept.【Innovation/limitation】The spreading law of emerging concepts from the dual perspectives of time and space was analyzed,but only the online public data was collected and lacked offline multi-channel samples.In addition,the analysis indicators should be added and refined.