重大突发公共卫生事件潜伏期风险研判与决策模型构建实证研究:以武汉新冠疫情防控战为例

An Empirical Study on Risk Prediction and Decision-Making Model of Major Public Health Emergencies:a Case Study of COVID-19 Prevention and Control War in Wuhan

【目的/意义】重大突发公共卫生事件发展潜伏期是风险应对的关键时期,文章所构建形成的潜伏期风险研判与决策模型,突出多主体动态参与的特点,并有效发挥信息和知识在其中的重要作用。【方法/过程】文章采用案例研究方法,选取新冠肺炎疫情武汉防控战作为案例研究样本,运用扎根理论对所搜集获取相关资料进行文本分析与研究。【结果/结论】文章构建形成由风险研判与决策层、参与主体层、信息知识支撑层三个层面所构成的重大突发公共卫生事件潜伏期风险研判与决策模型,体现了潜伏期阶段风险研判与决策过程是由多因素参与,受到诸方面因素和条件限制与制约的动态复杂过程。早优化研判与决策流程,有助于为之后其他生命周期阶段的防控工作打下良好基础。【创新/局限】文章从重大突发公共卫生事件潜伏期特点着手,突出风险研判与决策中主体的动态性,突出信息与知识在决策过程中的桥梁、纽带和驱动作用。文章缺少相应量化数据对模型的验证。

【Purpose/significance】The incubation period of major public health emergencies is a critical period for effective control of events.Risk judgment and decision model of incubation period constructed in this paper realized the dynamic participation of multiple subjects in risk assessment and decision-making,and effectively plays an important role of information and knowledge.【Method/process】This paper adopts the Case Study Method,selects the COVID-19 case in Wuhan as the study sample,and uses the grounded theory to code the collected relevant data.【Result/conclusion】This paper constructs a risk judgment and decision-making model for the incubation period of major public health emergencies,which is composed of three levels:risk judgment and decision-making level,participant level and information knowledge support level.It reflects that the risk judgment and decision-making process in the incubation period is a dynamic and complex process involving multiple factors and restricted by various factors and conditions.Early optimization of research and decision-making processes will help lay a good foundation for prevention and control in other life cycle stages.【Innovation/limitation】Starting from the characteristics of the incubation period of major public health emergencies,this paper highlights the dynamic nature of the subject in risk judgment and decision-making,as well as the bridge,link and driving role of information and knowledge in the decision-making process,but lacks corresponding quantitative data to verify the model.