“双碳”目标下城市碳排放演变及影响因素研究——以黄河“几字弯”都市圈为例

Evolution and Influencing Factors of Urban Carbon Emissions under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals:A Case Study on Metropolitan Area at the Bend of the Yellow River

黄河“几字弯”都市圈大多是工业基础深厚的资源型城市,碳排放量较高且转型困难,这是该地区城市在“双碳”目标下亟待解决的重要问题。对2000—2020年黄河“几字弯”都市圈内城市及其所属省份的人口、经济、产业结构以及夜间灯光等数据进行分析,并使用空间自相关模型和时空地理加权回归模型揭示都市圈碳排放空间演变格局以及各城市碳排放影响因素的时空异质性。实证结果表明:黄河“几字弯”都市圈碳排放量呈波动上升趋势,随着碳减排政策的实施,碳排放量增速有显著的下降趋势;都市圈中各城市的人均碳排放量与碳排放强度都存在显著的空间正相关性,同时形成了高-高集聚区和低-低集聚区,并且不同影响因素的影响水平在都市圈内存在异质性。最后得出结论:高-高集聚区需要重点关注,大力推行碳减排政策;黄河“几字弯”都市圈西南部的城市应强化降碳政策效果,整个都市圈城市则要加强经济增长与碳排放的脱钩建设,优化产业结构、增加固定资产投资、促进技术进步会抑制碳排放强度的增长。

Most cities in the metropolitan area at the bend of the Yellow River are resource-based ones having a deep industrial foundation with high carbon emissions and difficulty in transformation.This is an important issue that urgently needs to be solved by cities in the area under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.This study analyzed the population,economy,industrial structure,and nighttime light data of cities and corresponding provinces within the metropolitan area at the bend of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2020 and used a spatial autocorrelation model and a spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model to reveal the spatial evolution pattern of carbon emissions in this metropolitan area and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of factors influencing carbon emissions in each city.The empirical results indicate that the carbon emissions in the metropolitan area at the bend of the Yellow River show a fluctuating upward trend,and with the implementation of carbon emission reduction policies,the growth rate of carbon emissions has significantly decreased.There is a significant positive spatial correlation between the per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of each city in this metropolitan area,and there are a high-high agglomeration area and a low-low agglomeration area formed.In addition,the levels of influence of different influencing factors are heterogeneous within the metropolitan area.Finally,the conclusion is drawn that the high-high agglomeration area need to focus on and vigorously promote carbon emission reduction policies;cities in the southwest of the metropolitan area at the bend of the Yellow River should strengthen the effect of carbon reduction policies;cities in the entire metropolitan area should strengthen the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions,optimize the industrial structure,increase fixed assets investment,and promote technological progress to curb the growth of carbon emission intensity.