中国各产业参与国内国际循环的模式及测度研究

A Study on the Pattern and Measurement of Chinese Industries Participation in Domestic and International Circulation

文章以最终需求引发的波及效应为切入点,将经济循环分为4种模式,并且对各种循环进行界定。根据各种循环的定义,借鉴投入产出skyline模型,测算4种经济循环模式的相对规模,并以图示的方式反映产业的循环状况。本文将“国际循环”进一步分为“国内国际双循环”和“国际国内双循环”,并且测算了“国内大循环”的规模,丰富了测算的内容,为“新发展格局”的研究提供更加细致的分析数据。通过测算最终需求所诱发生产对各种类的经济循环进行测算,全面反映经济循环的状况。本文研究表明:第一,中国大部分产业是以国内大循环为主体,产业链自主可控;第二,能源资源受制于国外的供应链,产业链的脆弱性高;第三,部分高技术产业由于高度嵌入全球产业链,既依靠国外供应链,同时也依靠国外市场需求,部分产业存在“卡脖子”现象;第四,部分轻纺行业严重依赖国外市场,但是程度在减弱。中国构建“双循环新发展格局”就要保障供应链和产业链的安全,提高产业的自给能力,实现国家经济安全发展。

The paper takes the ripple effects triggered by ultimate demand as the starting point,divides the economic cycle into four patterns,and defines various cycles.Based on the definitions of these cycles,drawing on the input-output skyline model,it calculates the relative scale of the four economic cycle patterns and visually represents the cyclical state of industries.This paper further divides the“international cycle”into“domestic-international dual cycles”and“internationaldomestic dual cycles”,as well as calculates the scale of the“domestic large cycle”,which enriches the calculation's content and provides more detailed analytical data for the study of the“new development paradigm”.By calculating the economic cycles induced by final demand,it comprehensively reflects the state of economic cycles.By measurement,it was found that:First,most industries in China are centered around the domestic large cycle,with autonomous and controllable industrial chains.Second,energy resources are constrained by foreign supply chains,resulting in high vulnerability of the industrial chain.Third,some high-tech industries,due to their deep integration into the global industrial chain,rely on both foreign supply chains and foreign market demand,leading to a stranglehold in certain industries.Fourth,some textile industries heavily depend on foreign markets,although this dependence is diminishing.To establish the“dual-cycle new development paradigm”,China must safeguard the security of supply chains and industrial chains,enhance industrial self-sufficiency,and achieve national economic security and development.