现代货币理论:批判、吸收与实践

Modern Monetary Theory:Critique,Absorption and Practice

2020年初,受新冠肺炎疫情的冲击,西方国家纷纷采取了财政、货币双宽松的政策,这被认为是现代货币理论(MMT)“财政赤字货币化”的实践。国内也出台了减税降费、货币(或信用)宽松等支持政策。由于财政压力较大,学术界开始呼吁在中国应用MMT。支持与反对的声音都有,但以反对为主,原因包括:政策还有足够的空间、通胀压力、损害央行独立性或中国尚不具备实施MMT的条件等。两年后,大通胀时代回归,重新讨论MMT或许会有新的启示。本文首先从货币本质和起源的两种叙事谈起,这是MMT的逻辑起点;其次介绍MMT的方法论基础:存量-流量一致(SFC)模型,借此将资金流量表(FoF)和国民收入账户(SNA)体系联系起来,这是MMT的描述性工具;第三部分介绍MMT的政策主张“最后雇佣者”计划,及其对国际收支、汇率制度选择的看法;第四部分以日本的经验为切入点,评析MMT的实践;第五部分厘清MMT与辜朝明资产负债表衰退理论的异同;最后阐述“财政赤字货币化”的不可能三角,即债务货币化、美联储独立性和美元信用之间是不能兼备的。

At the beginning of 2020,due to the impact of COVID-19 epidemic,western countries have adopted proactive fiscal and accommodative monetary policies,which is regarded as the practice of modern monetary theory(MMT)“fiscal deficit monetization”.China has also introduced tax and fee cuts,monetary(or credit)easing and other supportive policies.Due to the great financial pressure,academia began to call for the application of MMT in China.There are both pros and cons.The main reasons for the opposition are:there is enough room for policy;inflationary pressure;undermining central bank independence;or China does not have the conditions to implement MMT.Two years later,when the Great Inflation era returns,revisiting MMT may shed new light.This paper starts from two narratives about the origin and nature of money,which is the logical starting point of MMT.Secondly,it introduces the methodological basis of MMT:stock-flow consistency(SFC)model,which connects the Flow of Funds(FoF)and the National Income account(SNA),which is the descriptive tool of MMT.The third part introduces MMT's policy of“the employer of last resort”plan,and its views on the choice of international balance of payments and exchange rate regime.The fourth part analyzes the practice of MMT based on the experience of Japan.The Fifth part clarifies the similarities and differences between MMT and Richard Koo's balance sheet recession theory;Finally,the impossible triangle of“fiscal deficit monetization”is expounded,that is,debt monetization,the independence of the Federal Reserve and the credibility of the dollar can not be simultaneously.