城市院前急救系统混合建模及仿真研究

Study on hybrid modeling and simulation of urban pre-hospital emergency system

由于单一仿真建模方法的院前急救系统难以从微观层面精细描述院前急救复杂系统中的后送路径和资源配置流程,同时缺少对医疗后送中的关键连续因素的定量分析,因此提出了基于多智能体仿真(Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation,ABMS)、系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD)、离散事件仿真(discrete event simulation,DES)的混合建模仿真系统。建立了基于SD方法的伤病员流结构模型、基于ABMS方法的院前急救资源配置模型、基于DES-SD方法的医疗后送排队模型。通过仿真发现,相关耗时数据与日常接送伤员历史数据两者的平均耗时无显著差异,得出基于混合建模方法的城市院前急救系统可以用于应急医学救援方案策略的优化,能够促进灾害应急医学救援决策科学性与精确性的提升。

The pre-hospital emergency system based on single simulation modeling method is difficult to describe the evacuation path and resource allocation process in the complex pre-hospital emergency system from the microscopic level,and lacks quantitative analysis of the key continuous factors in medical evacuation.This paper proposes a hybrid modeling and simulation system based on multi-agent-based simulation(Agent-based modeling and simulation,ABMS),system dynamics(SD)and discrete event simulation(DES).The structure model of casualty flow based on SD method,the allocation model of pre-hospital emergency resources based on ABMS method and the queuing model of medical evacuation based on DES-SD method are established.Through simulation,it is found that there is no significant difference in the average time consumption between the relevant timeconsuming data and the historical data of daily picking up and dropping off the wounded.It can be concluded that the urban pre-hospital emergency system based on hybrid modeling method can be used to optimize the emergency medical rescue scheme and strategy,and can promote the scientific and accurate decision-making of disaster emergency medical rescue.