云南省义务教育阶段教育质量与教育规模耦合评价与预测分析

Coupling Evaluation and Prediction of Education Quality and Education Scale in Compulsory Education in Yunnan Province

对2000-2016年云南省义务教育数据进行标准化处理并选用熵值法确定指标权重,应用耦合模型测度出义务教育阶段教育质量与教育规模耦合协调度指数,基于无偏GM(1,1)预测模型科学预测出2017-2022年云南省义务教育阶段耦合协调发展指数与等级。研究结果表明:2000-2016年云南省义务教育阶段两个子系统的耦合协调等级可分为中度失调、低度协调、中度协调。

The paper standardizes the compulsory education data of Yunnan Province in 2000-2016 and selects the Entropy value method to determine the index weight,and uses the coupling model to measure the coupling coordination index of education quality and education scale in compulsory educational stage,based on unbiased GM(1,1)Predictive model scientifically predicts the coupling coordinated development index and grade of compulsory education stage in Yunnan Province in 2017-2022 years.The results show that the coupling coordination grade of two subsystems in the compulsory education stage of Yunnan Province in 2000-2016 can be divided into moderate imbalance,low coordination and moderate coordination.