美国总统选举中的摇摆州及其“去摇摆化”——以“风向标”俄亥俄为例

The Invalidation of The Ohio“Bellwether”:The Swing States in the US Presidential Election and its De-swayed

长期以来,俄亥俄一直是美国总统选举中的“风向标”和关键摇摆州,素有“得俄亥俄者得天下”之说。两党在俄亥俄州内力量对比呈较明确的阶段性特征,先后经历了“摇摆州化”和“去摇摆化”两个过程。前一阶段为20世纪60年代到21世纪10年代,俄亥俄因精确映射了两党在全国大选中得票长期趋近的强均衡式对立,而成为一个二者激烈争夺、轮流胜出的强摇摆州。后一阶段则是2016年总统选举以来的新趋势,即俄亥俄可能正逐渐退出摇摆州行列,成为一个共和党占优势的偏红州。俄亥俄州的选举转移表明,美国选举政治地理分化的“核心—外围”模式正在发生新变化,从传统的南北对立转为城乡人口差异基础上的“密度分化”。通过对这种新分化模式的研究,可以在一定程度上透视美国选举政治的未来发展态势。

Ohio has been the“bellwether”and one of the most important swing states in the US presidential election for a long time.In this period,Ohio roughly undergone two historical phases:became a swing state and then lost its sway status.The previous stage was from the 1960s to the 2010s,Ohio became a strong swing state since it accurately mapped the long-term balanced opposition between Democratic and Republican Party at the national level.The latter stage seems to be a new trend after the 2016 presidential election,namely,Ohio may be gradually withdrawing from the swing state and turning to a red state dominated by the Republican Party.The electoral shift in Ohio shows that the“core-periphery”model of US political geographic is undergoing new changes,from the traditional North-South opposition to the“density divide”based on urban-rural conflict.Through the study of this new model,the future development trend of American electoral politics can be seen to a certain extent.