城镇化与土耳其伊斯兰政党的崛起

Urbanization and the Rise of Islamic Political Parties in Turkey

20世纪80年代以来,土耳其数个伊斯兰政党次第崛起。不同的人分别从宗教特性、政治和经济等角度分析了出现该现象的原因。借鉴前人的探索,本文选择从城镇化的视角对土耳其政治伊斯兰的崛起进行分析。第一,本文发现经济收入水平与伊斯兰政党支持率呈负相关关系。第二,本文亦发现土耳其存在明显的城乡经济分化,并进而推导出乡村居民较之城镇居民更倾向于支持伊斯兰政党的结论。第三,土耳其20世纪80年代经济改革后经历了大规模城镇化,原本就更倾向于伊斯兰政党的乡村居民在移民后基本维持着既有的政治倾向。第四,在土耳其特殊的议会选举制度下,大规模城镇化也让伊斯兰政党原本分散在中西部省份的选票"聚零为整"地聚集到伊斯坦布尔和安卡拉等关键选举省份。如此,伊斯兰政党在城镇地区和全国范围内的支持率不断上升,这一结果则最终以地区选举和全国性议会选举的胜利体现出来。

Since the 1980 s,several Islamic political parties have risen in Turkey. The predecessors analyzed the causes from several perspectives,such as the unique attributes of Islam,political perspective,economic perspective,social structures,and the perspective of personalities respectively. Drawing on the exploration of predecessors,this paper analyzes the rise of Turkish Islamic parties from the perspective of urbanization. First,this paper finds that the level of economic income is negatively correlated with the support rate of Islamic parties. Secondly,this paper also finds that Turkey has obvious urban-rural economic differentiation,and further concludes that rural residents are more inclined to support Islamic parties than urban residents. Third,Turkey experienced large-scale urbanization after the economic reforms of the 1980 s. Rural residents who were more inclined to Islamic parties generally maintained their existing political tendencies after moving to cities. Fourth,under Turkey’ s special parliamentary electoral system,large-scale urbanization has also led to the votes from the central and western provinces of the Islamic political parties to the key electoral provinces such as Istanbul and Ankara. In this way,the support rate of Islamic political parties in urban areas and across the country is rising,and this increase in support rate is finally reflected in the victory of regional elections and general elections.