基于ANP二维云模型的公路桥梁施工风险评价

Risk Assessment of Highway Bridge Construction Based on Both ANP and 2-D Cloud Model

为了准确有效地控制公路桥梁施工风险,针对现有风险评价方法在解决模糊性、随机性和风险指标相关性方面的不足,提出一种基于网络分析法(ANP)和二维云模型的风险评价方法。从5个方面对风险进行辨识,建立公路桥梁施工风险评价指标体系,运用网络分析法求解各指标的权重,以风险发生可能性与后果性为基础变量生成二维云模型,结合指标权重计算二维云模型的数字特征,最后提出二维云相似度计算方法并结合ALARP风险矩阵确定风险等级。应用上述方法对某公路桥梁施工阶段进行了风险评价,得出该公路桥梁施工中需采取相应措施降低风险等级。计算结果与工程实际情况相符,表明基于ANP和二维云模型的风险评价方法合理可行。

In order to control the construction risk of highway bridge accurately and effectively,a risk evaluation method based on ANP and two-dimensional cloud model was proposed,aiming at the shortcomings of existing evaluation methods in solving the problems of fuzziness,randomness and risk index correlation.The risk was identified from five aspects:personnel,materials,construction technology,construction management and construction environment.The risk evaluation index system of highway bridge construction was constructed and the weight of each index was solved by using network analysis method.Based on the risk probability and consequence,the risk indexes were evaluated in two dimensions,and the digital features of the two-dimensional comprehensive cloud model were calculated by combining the index weight.Finally,the similarity calculation method with the standard cloud was proposed,and the risk grade was determined by combining the ALARP risk matrix.The above method is applied to the risk assessment of a highway bridge construction stage,and the grade of the possibility and consequence of the construction risk is 3.Corresponding measures should be taken in the construction to reduce the risk grade,which is consistent with the actual situation of the project,indicating that the risk assessment method based on ANP and two-dimensional cloud model is reasonable and feasible.