数字化贫困阻碍了产业结构升级吗?——基于中国省域空间面板杜宾模型分析

Does Digital Poverty Block the Upgrading of Industrial Structure?——the Analysis Basing on the China’s Provincial Spatial Panel Durbin Model

从产业效应、劳动力禀赋效应和后发优势角度梳理了数字化贫困对产业结构升级的作用机理,并利用2006—2017年中国省域面板数据构建空间杜宾模型进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,中国数字化减贫整体呈健康发展态势,但是随着数字化进程的推进,数字化贫困逐渐出现固化,减贫工作进入攻坚阶段,并且开始面临效益和成本的选择问题。此外,就全国而言,数字化贫困对产业结构升级有阻碍作用;但分地区发现,部分地区数字化贫困非但未阻碍产业结构升级,反而通过数字化"代偿"——将资源从第一产业集中配置至第二产业的方式,弥补了数字化不足,推动了产业结构向更高级演进。最后,提出中国在推进数字化的进程中,应该分地区、分阶段和分模式地逐步实施数字化战略,而不应违背经济发展客观规律盲目跟风的政策建议。

This paper combs the mechanism of digital poverty on the upgrading of industrial structure from the angle of industrial effect,labor endowment effect and post-hair advantage,and makes an empirical study by using the Space Durbin Model of China’s provincial panel data from 2006 to 2017.The results show that China’s digital poverty reduction as a whole shows a healthy development trend,but with the advancement of digital process,digital poverty gradually solidified,poverty reduction work went into a critical stage,and began to face the choice of benefits and costs.In addition,as far as the whole country is concerned,digital poverty is an obstacle to the upgrading of industrial structure.However,the sub-region found that,far from hindering the upgrading of industrial structure,digital poverty in some regions has made up for the lack of digitalization and promoted the evolution of industrial structure to a higher level through"the Digital Complementary and Alternative Mechanism"-the way in which resources are centrally allocated from primary industry to secondary industries.Finally,it is suggested that in the process of promoting digitalization,China should gradually implement the digital strategy in a regional,phased and sub-model way,instead of violating the objective laws of economic development and blindly following the policy.