中美第一阶段经贸协议汇率章节述评——以“汇率操纵”问题为中心

Comment on the Exchange Rate Chapter of the China-US First Phase Economic and Trade Agreement: With a Focus on the Issue of“Currency Manipulation”

中美第一阶段经贸协议汇率章节标志着双方就汇率问题达成阶段性共识,向双边和多边途径回归。汇率章节的主要内容涉及汇率政策及其透明度,核心义务则是不得操纵汇率。从现实情况出发,IMF的相关规则及美国国内法的相关规定,是认识和分析这一义务的主要参考坐标。IMF多边规则对于汇率操纵的认定较为克制,也未规定或授权采取任何制裁措施;美国国内立法和实践则较为激进,不仅依据1988年《贸易与竞争力综合法》有过认定先例,2015年《贸易便利化与贸易执行法》更是明确授权采取单边制裁措施。第一阶段经贸协议缺乏硬性的强制执行或争端解决机制,能否完全抑制美国的单边主义冲动还有待观察。当前中国需要做好三方面工作:一是秉持最大诚意,善意履行条约义务;二是进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制,增强相关汇率政策和汇率操作的透明度;三是强化底线思维,对潜在的"汇率补贴"指控做好预判和预案。

The Exchange Rate Chapter of the China-US First Phase Economic and Trade Agreement marked a temporary consensus of the two parties on the issue of exchange rate,with a return to the bilateral and multilateral channels of resolving the relevant divergence and disputes.The main content of this chapter involves exchange rate policy and its transparency,while the core obligation is to avoid manipulating exchange rates.From a practical point of view,the relevant International Monetary Fund(IMF)rules as well as the relevant US domestic laws are the main benchmarks for the understanding and analysis of such an obligation.The IMF rules are comparatively restrained in finding currency manipulation;nor do they provide for or authorize any sanctions.The US domestic legislations and practices,on the other hand,are quite aggressive.Not only have there already been cases of designation of"currency-manipulators"under the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988,but the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 expressly authorized the US to impose sanctions unilaterally.Given the lack of a"hard"enforcement or dispute settlement mechanism in the First Phase Agreement,whether it can effectively control the unilateral action of the US is yet to be seen.On the part of China,three things are to be done.First,China should perform the obligations of the Agreement in a bona fide way with utmost good faith.Second,it is advisable to further improve on the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,enhancing the transparency of the relevant exchange rate policies and operations.Third,the relevant Chinese authorities need to strengthen their"bottom-line thinking",being well prepared for the potential"currency subsidy"accusation.