云南省河口县近60年气温变化特征分析

Analysis of Temperature Variation Characteristics in Hekou County of Yunnan Province in Recent 60 Years

根据河口县1954—2013年逐月的月平均气温资料,采用M-K突变检验、功率谱两种方法对年平均气温及春、夏、秋、冬各季平均气温变化趋势和周期变化进行分析。结果表明,河口县年平均气温及春、夏、秋、冬各季平均气温均大体呈增暖趋势且增暖趋势在80年代中期、90年代后期变得明显,发生突变的年份在80年代中期~90年代后期且均为增暖突变;年平均气温存在最明显的3—4年变化周期,春季平均气温无显著性周期存在,夏季平均气温存在5年左右的周期振荡,秋季平均气温存在8年周期变化,冬季平均气温存在3年左右的周期变化。

According to the monthly mean temperature data of Hekou County from 1954 to 2013,M-K mutation test and power spectrum were used to analyze annual average temperature,as well as the trend and periodic variation of average temperature in spring,summer,autumn and winter,respectively.The results showed that the average annual temperature and the average temperature of spring,summer,autumn and winter in Hekou County generally showed a warming trend,and the warming trend became obvious in the mid-1980 s and the late1990 s;the years in which the mutation occurred were from the mid-1980 s to the late 1990 s,which all were warming mutations.The annual average temperature had the most obvious change cycle of 3-4 year;there was no significant cycle of average temperature in spring;the average summer temperature had a periodic oscillation of about 5 years;the average autumn temperature had a periodic change of 8 years;the average winter temperature had a periodic change of about 3 years.