“三变”改革促进农民增收了吗?——基于DID模型的实证检验

Has the“Three changes”Reform Promoted the Increase of Farmers’Income?——An Empirical Test Based on the DID Model

“三变”改革(资源变资产、资金变股金、农民变股东)是当前农村基本经营制度的创新与发展,对农民增收具有重要的促进作用,但是否真正促进了农民增收还有待实证检验。本文利用乌蒙山区三个地级市2010~2019年24个县域的面板数据,构建基于双向固定效应的双重差分模型来估计“三变”改革促进农民增收的政策效应。研究结果显示:第一,“三变”改革具有良好的正向促进农民增收效应。第二,“三变”改革促进农民增收是一个持续动态过程,且“三变”改革具有政策预期效应,随着改革深入整体效果越来越显著。第三,“三变”改革促进农民增收主要通过推动土地流转集中发展适度规模经营,提升农业机械化水平发展现代农业,促进农民以土地入股,释放了家庭农业劳动力外出务工,推动农村二、三产业发展增加就业岗位,壮大集体经济等方面。在农业农村现代化进程中,应充分激发农村资源资产效能,进一步深入推进“三变”改革,在激活农村发展内生动力中探索农民实现共同富裕的道路。

The“three changes”reform(resources become assets,funds become share capital and farmers become shareholders)is an innovation and development of the current basic rural management system,which has an important role in promoting farmers’income,but whether it has really promoted farmers’income is yet to be tested empirically.The author uses panel data from 2010 to 2019 for 24 counties in three prefecture-level cities in the Wumeng Mountains to estimate the policy effects of the“three changes”reform on farmers’income by constructing a two-way fixed-effects double-difference model.The results show that:1)The“three changes”reform has a good positive effect on promoting farmers’income.2)The“three changes”reform promotes farmers’income increase is a dynamic process and its impact is continuous,and the“three changes”reform has a policy expectation effect,which has become more pronounced with the deepening of the reform.3)the results of the mechanism test show that the“three changes”reform promotes farmers’income increase mainly through promoting land transfer and concentrating the development of moderate scale operation,enhancing agricultural mechanization and developing modern agriculture,promoting farmers’shareholding in land,releasing family agricultural laborers to go out to work,promoting the development of rural secondary and tertiary industries to increase employment and growing the collective economy,etc.In the process of agricultural and rural modernization,we should fully stimulate the effectiveness of rural resources and assets,further promote the“three changes”reform,and explore the road of common prosperity for farmers in activating the endogenous power of rural development.