浙江高温热害气象下水稻孕穗阶段热害概率的拟合优度检验方法

Goodness-of-Fit Test Method for Heat Damage Probability of Rice at Booting Stage in High Temperature and Hot Weather in Zhejiang

为避免或降低高温热害对水稻孕穗阶段的影响,建立了一种热害概率预测模型,并采用卡方检验法判断其拟合度。结果表明,预测温度值与实际温度值的拟合度较高,该模型能够有效预测稻田的热害发生概率以及划分高温热害风险等级。

In order to avoid or reduce impact of high temperature heat damage on booting stage of rice,a heat damage probability prediction model was established,and the chi-square test method was used to determine its fitness.Results showed that degree of fit between predicted temperature value and actual temperature value was high.The model can effectively predict probability of occurrence of heat damage in rice fields and classify risk level of high temperature heat damage.