农业技术进步与碳排放强度关系——不同影响路径下的实证分析

Relationship between agricultural technology progress and carbon emission intensity:An empirical analysis under different influence paths

为厘清农业技术进步在农业碳排放过程中发挥的作用,使用中国29个省份1997—2016年的农业面板数据(统计数据未含新疆、西藏自治区及港、澳、台地区,下同),通过系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)方法分析了农业技术进步对农业碳排放强度的影响。结果表明:农业技术进步整体上有利于农业碳排放强度的降低,但是细分路径发现,农业技术进步并不总是有利于农业碳减排,以农业机械化水平为代表的机械型技术进步促进了农业碳排放强度的增加,以农业种质创新为代表的生物型技术进步显著降低了农业碳排放强度。因此,未来农业绿色发展过程中,需重视不同路径技术进步对农业碳排放的影响,有针对性地促进农业碳减排,继续推进农业种质创新和优质新品种推广;优化农机装备结构,促进农机的新旧动能转换,以更有力地促进农业碳减排。

In order to clarify the role of agricultural technology progress in the process of agricultural carbon emissions,based the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 1997 to 2016(The data do not include those of Xinjiang and Xizang Autonomous Region,Hongkong,Macao and Taiwan regions.The same below.),this study analyzes the impact of agricultural technology progress on the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions by using the SYS-GMM method.The results show that the agricultural technology progress as a whole promotes the reduction of carbon emissions.However,the breakdown path found that agricultural technology progress is not always conducive to agricultural carbon reduction:Represented by agricultural mechanization level,the mechanical model of technological progress promotes the agricultural carbon intensity increases;Represented by agricultural germplasm innovation,the biological technology significantly reduces the carbon intensity of agriculture.Therefore,in the process of green agricultural development in the future,attention should be paid on the impact of technological progress of different routes on agricultural carbon emissions,targeted promotion of agricultural carbon emission reduction,continuous promotion of agricultural germplasm innovation and promotion of high-quality new varieties to optimize the structure of agricultural machinery and equipment,promote the conversion of old and new driving forces of agricultural machinery,and more effectively promote carbon emission reduction in agriculture.