中国农业碳排放研究的现状、热点与趋势

Research on status,focus and developing trend of agricultural carbon emission in China

【目的】中国农业正处于绿色转型与高质量发展的关键阶段,理清农业碳排放的研究现状、热点及趋势,有利于拓展该研究领域的深度与广度,进而为促进中国农业碳减排提供参考和依据。【方法】文章基于中国知网数据库,以2008—2023年收录的297篇复合影响因子大于3.0的高水平期刊论文为基础数据,运用CiteSpace6.2.R4软件对文献进行发文量统计、共现分析、聚类分析、突现词分析、时间线图谱分析,以期发掘中国农业碳排放领域的研究现状、研究热点及其演进趋势。【结果】中国农业碳排放研究年发文量经历了快速增长、稳定发展、再次升温并保持较高热潮3个阶段;高产发文作者呈现“整体分散、局部聚集”的状态,发文机构整体上多独立开展研究;核心关键词是碳排放、低碳农业、中国、影响因素等;2013—2021年每年都有新的关键词首次突现。【结论】当前研究热点可以归纳为农业碳排放研究、低碳农业、农地流转对碳排放的影响、农业碳排放回弹效应、农业碳排放与农业经济关系研究五大类;呈现研究热度梯度式上升、研究主题持续更新、研究方法逐渐增多等趋势;未来在固碳减排对粮食安全的影响、农业碳排放全产业链研究、农业碳排放中小区域研究、农户低碳生产行为研究等四个方面有待进一步深入探讨。

[Purpose]China's agriculture is at a critical stage of green transformation and high-quality development.Clarifying the research status,hot spots and trends of agricultural carbon emissions is conducive to expanding the depth and breadth of this research field,and thus provide reference and basis for promoting China's agricultural carbon emission reduction.[Method]Based on the database of CNKI,this paper took 297 high-level journal papers with compound impact factor greater than 3.0 collected from 2008 to 2023 as basic data.CiteSPace6.2.R4 software was used for publication statistics and analysis of co-occurrence cluster,outburst word and time line atlas,in order to explore the research status,research hotspot and evolution trend of agricultural carbon emission in China.[Result]The results showed that the annual number of published papers on agricultural carbon emissions in China experienced three stages:rapid growth,stable development,heating up and maintaining a high upsurge;The high output authors showed a state of"overall dispersion and local aggregation",and the author institutions carried out research independently on the whole.The key words were carbon emission,low-carbon agriculture,China,influencing factors,etc.Every year from 2013 to 2021,new keywords had appeared yearly for the first time.[Conclusion]Current research hotspots can be summarized into five categories:research on agricultural carbon emissions,low-carbon agriculture,the impact of agricultural land transfer on carbon emissions,the rebound effect of agricultural carbon emissions,and the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economy.There is a trend of gradient increase of research heat,continuous renewal of research topics,and gradual increase of research methods.In the future,the impact of carbon sequestration and emission reduction on food security,the study of the whole industrial chain of agricultural carbon emissions,the study of small and medium-sized regions of agricultural carbon emissions,and the study of farmers'low-carbon production behavior need to be further discussed.