基于遥感与MaxEnt预测海南东亚飞蝗宜生区

MaxEnt and remote sensing-based extraction of habitable areas for the locusta migratoria manilensis in Hainan Island

【目的】科学预测海南东亚飞蝗宜生区并划分不同等级,对海南东亚飞蝗制定科学防治措施、提高绿色防控效率提供参考。【方法】文章选取海南岛为研究区域,结合600个海南东亚飞蝗分布点,基于最大熵模型构建基于遥感、土壤、植被和地形等多源数据的海南东亚飞蝗宜生区指标体系,分析不同生境因子对海南东亚飞蝗宜生区分布的影响,对海南东亚飞蝗宜生区进行预测。【结果】模型模拟结果极好,平均AUC值为0.944;决定海南东亚飞蝗宜生区分布的主要影响因子为6月降水量、5月植被指数(NDVI)、6月地表温度、9月降水量、10月降水量和3月植被指数;高宜生区和中等偏高适生区主要分布在东方市、儋州市、昌江黎族自治县和乐东黎族自治县。【结论】在当前全球变暖的条件下,气温的升高可能会使海南东亚飞蝗繁殖加快,从而增加种群数量,海南东亚飞蝗的高宜生区在东方市和乐东黎族自治县分布比例较高,需密切关注该地蝗虫发育情况,做到早防早控。

[Purpose]Scientifically predict the livable areas of Hainan Locusta migratoria manilensis and classify them into different levels,providing reference for formulating scientific control measures and improving the efficiency of green prevention for Hainan East Asian.[Method]The article selected Hainan Island as the study area,combined with 600 Hainan East Asian locust distribution points,based on the Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt)to construct the indicator system based on remote sensing,soil,vegetation and topography and other multi-source data,analysed the impact of different habitat factors on the distribution of Hainan East Asian locust habitat,and predicted the suitable area for Hainan East Asian locust.[Result]The model simulation results were excellent,with an average AUC value of 0.944;the main factors determining the distribution of suitable areas for the East Asian flying locust in Hainan were the precipitation in June,NDVI in May,surface temperature in June,precipitation in September,precipitation in October,and NDVI in March;the highly suitable areas and the moderately high suitable areas were mainly distributed in Dongfang City,Danzhou City,Changjiang Lizu autonomous county,and Ledong Lizu autonomous county[.Conclusion]In the current conditions of global warming,the rise in temperature,may be Hainan East Asian locust breeding accelerated,thus increasing the number of populations,Hainan East Asian locusts of the high habitability of the East Asian locusts in Dongfang City and Ledong Lizu autonomous county East Asian locusts of the high habitability of the high proportion of the distribution of the locusts need to pay close attention to the development of the locusts in this place,so as to achieve the early prevention and early control.