阿拉善盟孪井滩地区春玉米与气象影响因子拟合度分析

Fitting Analysis on Development of Spring Maize and Meteorological Impact Factors in Luanjingtan of Alxa League

基于孪井滩气象站2010—2020年气象观测资料及同时段春玉米观测及气象统计数据,分析春玉米的发育期和产量结构与气象要素的拟合度分析,结果显示:春玉米的理论产量与4月上旬平均气温和8月下旬平均气温存在很好的二项式回归关系,决定系数分别为R^(2)=0.7444和R^(2)=0.8128;株籽粒重与密度、乳熟期果穗粗存在很好的二项式回归关系,决定系数分别为R^(2)=0.7119、R^(2)=0.7140,密度大于5.17株/m^(2)时,株籽粒重呈明显减少的趋势。所以,根据当地的天气情况合理安排春玉米田间管理,对于促进春玉米生长发育、提高产量和品质很重要。

Based on the Luanjingtan meteorological observation data of 2010—2020 and the observation and meteorological statistics of spring maize,we analyzed the fit of developmental period and yield structure to meteorological elements in spring maize,the results showed that,there was a good binomial regression relationship between the theoretical yield and the average air temperature of the first ten days of April and the second ten days of August,the determining coefficients were R^(2)=0.7444 and R^(2)=8128,respectively.And there were good binomial regression relationship between plant grain weight and density,ear diameter at milk stage,the determining coefficients were R^(2)=0.7119,R^(2)=0.7140,respectively.When the plant density is more than 5.17 plants/m^(2),the grain weight of plant decreaseed obviously.Therefore,it is very important to arrange the spring corn field management reasonably according to the local weather conditions to promote the growth and development of spring corn and improve the yield and quality.