基于多普勒天气雷达资料的冰雹预报模型及应用

Hail Forecast Model and its Application Based on Doppler Radar

为了提高雅安市冰雹预报能力,并为人工消雹工作提供更好的指导作用,文章利用了雅安市的新一代多普勒天气雷达资料,采用随机森林方法,对32项特征指标进行判断,建立了冰雹预报模型。使用该模型,可判断出可能出现冰雹的风暴,及其未来30 min的移动轨迹,以此确定未来冰雹的影响区域,给风暴最近的人工影响天气高炮作业点提供方位角、仰角数据,指导作业人员实施消雹作业。研究成果能够为雅安市冰雹灾害的防御提供科学指导,在实际业务应用中减轻农业灾害损失,提高全市冰雹灾害的防御能力。

In order to improve the local hail forecasting ability of Ya’an City and provide better guidance for artificial hail elimination,This paper uses the new generation Doppler weather radar data of Ya’an City,adopts the random forest method to judge a total of 32 characteristic indicators,and establishes a hail forecast model.Using this model,it is possible to determine the storm that may have hail,and to determine its movement trajectory in the next 30 minutes,so as to determine the future impact area,provide azimuth and elevation data for the nearest shot point of the storm,and guide the shot site operators to implement operations.The results of the project can provide scientific guidance for the defense of hail disasters in Ya’an,reduce agricultural disaster losses in practical business applications,and improve the city’s hail disaster defense capabilities.