1961—2015年鄂温克旗气候变化特征分析

The Analysis of Climate Change characteristics in Ewenki

利用鄂温克旗1961—2015年的气象观测数据,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验结合滑动t检验方法,对鄂温克旗的气温和降水年序列进行了分析,以揭示鄂温克旗气候变化特征及其突变事实。结果表明:(1)1961年以来,鄂温克旗年平均气温呈波动上升趋势,从20世纪60年代的-2.37℃上升到21世纪初期的-0.59℃;(2)20世纪70、80和90年代,鄂温克旗属于多雨时段,年平均降雨量变化在330.0~360.0mm之间;21世纪初的10a的年平均降水量为281.0mm,气候呈现高温少雨的特征;(3)鄂温克旗年平均气温在1985年后有暖突变,1961—1982年,年平均气温呈下降趋势,自1983年呈增加趋势,尤其1990年以后,气温呈现显著升高的趋势;(4)鄂温克旗年降水量在2000年前后有突变,1978—2000年,年降水量呈现升高的趋势,2000以后年降水量逐渐下降;(5)春季、夏季、秋季、冬季平均气温都有暖突变,突变的时间分别为1985、1995、1987和1982年,春季气温与年气温变化趋势一致;四季中只有冬季降水量在1988年后发生突变,与年降水量变化同步。

Based on the meteorological observation data of Ewenki from 1961 to 2015,the annual temperature and precipitation series were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall mutation test and sliding t-test,in order to reveal the characteristics of climate change and its abrupt changes.The results showed that:(1)Since 1961,the annual average temperature of Ewenki showed a fluctuating and rising change,which rose from-2.37℃in 1960 s to-0.59℃in the early 21 st Century.(2)1970 s,1980 s and 1990 s were rainy period,and the average annual rainfall varied between 330-360 mm.The annual average precipitation of ten years in the early 21 st Century was 281 mm,and the climate of this period was characterized by high temperature and less rain.(3)The annual mean temperature had an abrupt change about 1985.From 1961 to 1982,the annual mean temperature showed a downward trend.While the annual mean temperature increased since 1983,especially after 1990,the temperature showed a significant increase trend.(4)The annual precipitation had an abrupt change in 2000:the annual precipitation showed an increasing trend from 1978 to 2000,while a gradually decreasing trend since 2000;(5)The average temperature in spring,summer,autumn,and winter all had warm abrupt changes.The abrupt times were 1985,1995,1987,and 1982,respectively.The spring temperature was consistent with the annual temperature change trend.In the four seasons,only winter precipitation had an abrupt change in 1988,which was synchronized with the annual precipitation.