基于MaxEnt模型的安徽省杜鹃兰潜在适生区预测

Prediction of Suitable Growth Zone Change of Cremastra Appendiculata in Anhui Province Based on MaxEnt Model

文章以杜鹃兰为研究对象,通过筛选并结合13个环境因子,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)研究在当前和未来气候(2021—2040年)条件下在安徽的潜在适生区的变化。结果表明:(1)MaxEnt模型预测结果良好;(2)影响杜鹃兰分布的主导因素有降水量及气温;(3)在当前气候及未来(2021—2040年)的3种气候情景下,杜鹃兰在安徽的高适生区及中适生区面积大幅减少,高适生区质心先由东北转为西北,再向东南方向变化。研究为杜鹃兰的发现与保护提供参考。

Taking Cremastra appendiculata as the research object,by screening and combining 13 environmental factors,the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)was used to study the changes of potential suitable areas in Anhui under modern and future climate(2021-2040).The results show that the prediction result of MaxEnt model is good;the main factors affecting the distribution of Cremastra appendiculata are precipitation and air temperature;under the current climate and three climatic scenarios in the future(2021-2040),the area of high and medium adaptive areas in Anhui is greatly reduced,and the centroid of highly suitable areas changes from northeast to northwest,and then to southeast.The study provides a reference for the discovery and protection of Cremastra appendiculata.