现代服务业发展的就业效应及影响因素研究——以锦州市为例

Research on the employment effect and influencing factors of the development of modern service industry:taking Jinzhou as an example

针对现代服务业就业效应及影响因素等问题,利用VAR模型和时间序列模型实证分析了锦州市现代服务业发展与就业规模之间的动态关系。研究发现:现代服务业发展对就业影响有一定的滞后性和波动性,但总体呈现正向拉动趋势,具有显著的长期持续促进效应;城镇居民收入、金融发展水平,以及工业化水平对锦州市现代服务业发展有明显影响,其中,城镇居民收入对锦州市现代服务业发展影响最大。提出促进制造业与服务业协同发展、提高劳动力素质等建议。研究结论对促进现代服务业发展和提高就业水平具有参考价值。

Aiming at the employment effect and influencing factors of modern service industry,this paper uses VAR model and time series model to empirically study the dynamic relationship between the development of modern service industry and employment scale in Jinzhou.The research finds that the development of modern service industry has a certain lag and volatility in its impact on employment,but the overall trend is positive,with a significant long-term sustained promotion effect;The income of urban residents,the level of financial development and the level of industrialization have a significant impact on the development of modern service industry in Jinzhou,of which the income of urban residents has the greatest impact on the development of modern service industry in Jinzhou.Suggestions on promoting the coordinated development of manufacturing and service industry and improving the quality of labor force are put forward.The research conclusions have reference value for promoting the development of modern service industry and improving the employment level.