我国劳动—资本要素的错配及优化策略

The Misallocation of Labor-Capital Factors in China and Its Optimization Strategy

全国和分省收入法GDP核算显示2004年和2009年前后我国劳动与资本收入的配比存在显著的间断点,并能通过面板门槛模型检验,本文尝试采用要素错配来解释这一现象。研究发现:一方面,在要素错配程度方面,我国资本要素和劳动要素错配程度在2004年发生了大幅下降,而在2009年以后又有较大回升;另一方面,在要素错配的贡献方面,同样是在2004年劳动要素的扭曲贡献大幅上升,在2009年后发生下降。我国要素错配大幅变化年份刚好与要素分配间断点年份吻合。由此推测,一方面,要素错配程度与要素分配关系存在关联,通过复杂的生产函数及实际和潜在TFP所测算得到的要素错配情况与简单通过收入法GDP核算的要素分配关系之间存在很强的一致性;另一方面,我国目前发展阶段在倾向于资本要素分配能带来更小的要素错配,GDP增速也同样佐证这一推论。

The income-based accounting of GDP shows that there are two significant discontinue-points of the relationship between the income of capital and labor in around 2004 and 2009,and this phenomenon can pass the panel threshold model test.This paper attempts explain this phenomenon by the factor misallocation,and finds that:The degree of misallocation between capital and labor in China decreased significantly in 2004,and then rose after 2009.The distorted contribution of labor factors increased significantly in 2004 and decreased after 2009.The year of factor misallocation change in China coincides with the year of factor distribution discontinuity.It can be inferred that the degree of factor mismatch is related to the distribution of factors.In China’s current development stage,the pattern that distribution bias to capital tends to bring smaller factor mismatch and faster economic growth.