社会稳定风险评估机制的实践进展、现实问题与完善策略——基于社会稳定风险评估报告的内容分析

The Practice of Social Stability Risk Assessment Progress,Problems and Improvement Strategy: Based on Content Analysis of Social Stability Risk Assessment Report

2006年起,我国开始探索建立社会稳定风险评估机制,以期从源头预防和化解社会冲突与矛盾。经过十余年发展,该机制在推动改革、发展、稳定的有机统一中发挥着举足轻重的作用。为进一步提高该机制在风险治理领域的效果,本文对机制的运行现状及存在问题进行回顾和审视。本文主要采用内容分析法,以社会稳定风险评估指导性文件为基础,对全国范围内的271份社会稳定风险评估报告进行统计分析,进而对当前社会稳定风险评估实践进展进行描述。研究发现,现行机制在评估主体选取、评估内容与重点、评估方法与民意调查等层面均还有待完善。鉴于此,本文从构建多主体协同评估模式、重视风险的社会属性和可控性审查、推动评估方法创新等方面提出了针对性的改进策略。

After 2006,China established Social Stability Risk Assessment Mechanism in order to prevent and resolve social conflicts.After more than ten years of exploration,this mechanism plays an important role in promoting the development and social stability.In order to further improve the effectiveness of the mechanism,this paper intends to review and examine the operation status and existing problems of the Social Stability Risk Assessment Mechanism.This paper uses content analysis method and makes analysis of 271 social stability risk assessment reports nationwide,in combination with interviews with staff and field research,this paper makes a comprehensive description of current practices.The paper found that the current mechanism still needs to be improved in terms of the selection of evaluator,the content of the evaluation,the evaluation method and the public opinion survey method.