暴雨衍生灾害触发敏感性快速排序评价方法研究

The quick rank method of trigger sensitivity of rainstorm derivative disasters in Zhejiang Province

利用浙江省地理地貌数据、地质灾害隐患点数据和三源融合降水数据,同时选取暴雨衍生灾害的孕灾影响因子——海拔高度、地形起伏情况、江河水网密度、地形陡峭程度、地质条件,用GIS技术和专家打分等方法,结合孕灾环境和致灾因子,建立以县区行政单位为单元的暴雨衍生灾害触发敏感性排序评价方法,提供暴雨衍生灾害易发排序.对浙江省2020年梅汛期两次成灾的暴雨过程进行检验,发现此评价方法提供的未来24 h县区暴雨衍生灾害易发排序跟实际发生的衍生灾害种类较符合.此方法能快速、有效提供以行政单位(县区)为单元的衍生灾害易发性排序,可为暴雨衍生灾害防御的决策部署提供参考.

With data of geomorphological data and geological hazard hidden danger point data in Zhejiang Province,the authors chose altitude,terrain undulation,river network density,steepness of terrain and geological conditions as the disaster inducing environment factors in this study.The susceptibility of rainstorm disaster(waterlogging,flash flood,geological disasters)in towns has been calculated by GIS technology and expert scoring method.Then,by combining rainstorm disaster factors which are rainstorm disaster-causing level in Zhejiang Province and gauge-radar-satellite merged precipitation products,we established an evaluation method of the rank method of rainstorm derivative disasters.The result shows that this method basically can work well from examining two disastrous rainstorms in Meiyu period of 2020,and the orders of rainstorm derivative disasters in future 24 hours we provided match well with the fact.In summary,the advantage of this method is reflected in the fact that it not only can make fast and effectively sort of susceptibility to the administrative region(county and city)but also has reference value for decision deployment.