生两个孩子:中国社会的又一场生育革命

Having Two Children: New Fertility Revolution in Chinese Society

40年前开始实施的独生子女政策,开启了中国社会史无前例的第一场生育革命。这场生育革命不仅有效地降低了中国人口的增长速度,还形成了只生一个孩子的生育文化。而生育两个孩子,将成为中国社会又一场生育革命的目标和标志。新的社会历史环境、新的生育承担者,给这场新的生育革命带来了不同的特征和困难。当生育政策不再是限制人们生育子女的桎梏时,生育文化的潜在影响力就开始显现出它的巨大威力。尽管生育政策一步步放开,但经由第一场生育革命所形成的"只生育一个孩子"的社会生育文化,却不会很容易、更不会很快地随着生育政策的改变而改变,依然在深深地影响着当今一代育龄人口的生育意愿和生育行为。因此,第二场生育革命的关键,就在于逐渐改变中国社会业已形成的"只生一个孩子"的生育文化,努力建立起"生育两个孩子"的新的生育文化。

The one-child policy since 40 years ago initiated the first fertility revolution in the Chinese society,which not only reduced effectively the growth rate of this nation’s population,but also brought into being one-child-for-a-family culture.Presently,the calling for two children for a family is becoming the goal and the symbol of a new fertility revolution in this country.The new social and historical environment,together with new bearers of fertility,brings different characteristics and difficulties to this new fertility revolution.When fertility policy is no longer a shackle to limiting people’s childbearing,the potential influence of fertility culture begins to show its great persistence.Although the fertility policy becomes more and more open,the fertility culture of"having only one child"forged in the first fertility revolution will not be gone easily or quickly with the policy.It will still keep in its wake the child-bearing willingness and behavior of this generation of childbearing age.Therefore,the key to a successful second fertility revolution lies in gradually changing the"only one child"fertility culture to establish a new fertility culture of"having two children".