基础设施资本回报率的估算及影响因素研究

Research on the Estimation of the Return on Infrastructure Capital and Its Influencing Factors

文章在合理界定并调整基础设施统计口径基础上,运用永续盘存法非传统途径和生产函数法谨慎测算了基础设施的全套资本存量和资本回报率,并构造1993-2016年省级面板数据,从三个方面分解并检验了基础设施资本回报率的影响因素。研究发现:(1)全国生产性基础设施资本存量急剧攀升,年均增速达到12.6%。其中,经济基础设施存量持续高于社会基础设施。(2)基础设施资本回报率呈现倒"U"型变动趋势,且在不同基础设施类型和区域间保持稳健。其中,社会基础设施的资本回报率整体高于经济基础设施,东部地区的基础设施资本回报率高于中部地区,西部地区则长期处于低位运行。(3)基于基础设施资本产出比不断上升是其资本回报率持续下降的主因这一判断,进一步证实基础设施投资率及其资本深化程度,以及人力资本积累、城镇化等因素整体上均显著影响基础设施资本回报率。

Based on a reasonable definition and adjustment of the statistical caliber of infrastructure,this paper uses the non-traditional approach of perpetual inventory method and the production function method to carefully measure the complete set of capital stock and return on capital of infrastructure.At the same time,based on the provincial panel data of China from 1993 to 2016,this paper decomposed and regressed to identify the influencing factors of return on infrastructure capital from three aspects.The study found:Firstly,the national capital stock of productive infrastructure has risen sharply,with an average annual growth rate of 12.6%.Among them,the stock of economic infrastructure continues to be higher than that of social infrastructure.Secondly,the return on infrastructure capital exhibits an inverted"U"-shaped change trend,and remains stable across different types of infrastructure and regions.Among them,the return on capital of social infrastructure is generally higher than that of economic infrastructure,the return on infrastructure capital in the eastern region is higher than that in the central region,and the western region has been operating at a low level for a long time.Lastly,based on the judgment that the increasing ratio of infrastructure capital output is the main reason for its continuous return on capital,we have further confirmed that the infrastructure investment rate and the degree of capital deepening,as well as the accumulation of human capital,urbanization and other factors have significantly affected the return on infrastructure capital.