进口替代与出口替代的差异探微——基于资本积累视域的考察

On the Substantial Difference between Import Substitution and Export Substitution——An Investigation Based on the Perspective of Capital Accumulation

分别推行进口替代战略和出口替代战略的欠发达国家呈现出不同的经济局面,相应地,包括新结构经济学在内的流行观点往往就将这归咎于对根基于要素禀赋的比较优势原理的遵循或违背。实际上,无论是推行进口替代战略还是出口替代战略,政府都会对相关进口替代企业和出口替代企业提供补贴与其他扶持;这就意味着,两大发展战略下的产业都在某种程度上偏离了要素禀赋结构,即存在偏离程度和偏离方向的差异。为此,两大发展战略的不同经济效果就不能简单地归咎于对要素禀赋结构的遵循或违背,而更主要在于能否持续地占有(国内或国外)市场并由此带来持续的资本积累。就此而言,进口替代战略和出口替代战略在不同时空下实现这一目标的有效性是不同的,这就导致两大发展战略都有特定的时代适应性。当然,随着社会发展带来经济总量的扩大,资本积累就越来越来自生产中的企业利润;随着技术进步带来规模经济的提升,企业竞争力就越来越依赖不断扩大的海外市场。相应地,欠发达国家的发展模式就产生出从进口替代战略转向出口替代战略的内在要求。但无论如何,我们不能对进口替代或出口替代两大战略作截然区分,现实政策也不是简单地在其中“二者择一”;相反,它们之间相互补充和相互渗透,各国几乎都是且应该根据特定社会情势进行因势利导的选择。

Underdeveloped countries,which implement import substitution strategy and export substitution strategy respectively,present different economic situations.Accordingly,popular views,including new structural economics,often attribute this to following or violating the principle of comparative advantage determined by factor endowment.Actually,the government will provide subsidies and other support to relevant import substitution enterprises and export substitution enterprises regardless of the implementation of import substitution strategy and export substitution strategy.This means that the industries under the two development strategies deviate from the factor endowment structure to some extent,although there are differences in the degree and the direction of deviation.Therefore,the different economic effects of the two development strategies can not be simply attributed to the following or violation of the factor endowment structure,but more importantly,whether they can continuously occupy(domestic or foreign)markets and thus bring about sustained capital accumulation.In this regard,the effectiveness of import substitution strategy and export substitution strategy to achieve this goal in different time and space is different,which leads to the two development strategies have a specific era adaptability.However,with the expansion of economic aggregate brought about by social development,capital accumulation comes more and more from the profits of enterprises in production.Furthermore,with the improvement of scale economy brought by technological progress,the competitiveness of enterprises increasingly depends on the expanding overseas market.Accordingly,the development mode of undeveloped countries has the inherent requirement of transforming from import substitution strategy to export substitution strategy.However,in any case,we cannot make a categorical distinction between the two strategies of import substitution or export substitution,and realistic policies also do not make a choice between two.On the contrary,they complement and permeate each other,and almost all countries make and should make the best choice according to the specific social situation.