财政压力对地方政府科技投入的影响研究——来自281个地级市的经验证据

Research on the Impact of Fiscal Pressure on Local Government’s Science and Technology Investment——Empirical Evidence from 281 Cities Above Prefecture Level in China

实施创新驱动发展战略离不开政府对科技活动的支持与导向,加大地方政府对科技活动的财政激励对于提升国家科技实力,进而推动建设创新型国家具有重要意义。本文以分税制改革以来地方政府形成一定财政压力和2012年起逐步开展的"营改增"为现实背景,旨在考察财政压力对地方政府科技投入的影响效果,在理论分析其作用机制并提出假设的基础上,采用2008—2015年281个地级市面板数据进行了实证研究。研究发现:财政压力对地方政府科技投入具有显著的负向影响;"营改增"与财政压力存在交互效应,"营改增"本身会促进地方政府科技投入,但在财政压力条件下,"营改增"对地方政府科技投入亦具有显著的负向影响;官员任期和城市异质性是影响财政压力与地方政府科技投入之间关系的重要因素。在使用工具变量法和双重差分法处理内生性问题,进行官员任期分组检验和城市异质性分析,以及考虑科技投入的空间和动态效应后,本文结论依然稳健。本文结论为进一步深化财税体制改革,推动地区创新发展提供了政策启示。

Implementing the innovation-driven development strategy can hardly do without the government’s support and guidance in science and technology activities.It is of great significance that local government increase fiscal incentives for science and technology activities to upgrade the country’s scientific and technological strength and further promote the construction of an innovation-oriented country.This paper is aimed at investigating the impact of fiscal pressure on investment in science and technology from local government,under the background of the fiscal pressure in local government since the tax-sharing reform and"Change from Business Tax to Value-Added Tax"gradually carried out since 2012.On the basis of theoretical analysis of its mechanism and the proposed hypothesis,an empirical study was conducted using panel data analysis of281 cities in China's Mainland from 2008 to 2015.The study finds that firstly fiscal pressure has a remarkable negative impact on science and technology investment from local government.Secondly,"the Change from Business Tax to Value-Added Tax"has an interaction with fiscal pressure and it will promote investment in science and technology from local government.Thirdly,however,the policy has a notable negative impact on local government’s technology investment under the financial pressure.Fourthly,official tenure and urban heterogeneity are important factors influencing the relationship between fiscal pressure and local government technology investment.The conclusions of this paper are still stable after using the instrumental variable method and the double difference method to deal with endogenous problems,conducting official tenure group test and urban heterogeneity analysis,as well as considering the spatial and dynamic effects of science and technology input.The conclusions of this paper provide policy implications for further deepening the fiscal and taxation system reform and promoting regional innovation-driven development.