中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资区位选择研究——基于制度距离视角

Study on China’s Location Choice of Direct Investment in Countries Along the Belt and Road——Based on Institutional Distance Perspective

本文基于制度距离视角,以"一带一路"沿线国家为研究对象,建立空间面板杜宾模型,实证检验政治制度距离和经济制度距离对中国对"一带一路"沿线国家直接投资区位选择的影响。研究发现:中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的直接投资活动存在显著的空间相关性。政治制度距离和经济制度距离的直接效应和空间溢出效应均显著为负。并且,政治制度距离所带来的空间溢出效应占总效应的60%以上,经济制度距离所带动的空间溢出效应在总效应中占比更是超过80%。此外,本文认为未来中国对"一带一路"沿线国家直接投资应该重点关注与中国制度距离较小但投资不足的中高收入国家和它们的邻国。

Based on the perspective of institutional distance,taking the countries along the "Belt and Road"as the research object and establishing the spatial panel Dubin Model,this paper empirically tests the influence of political institutional distance and economic institutional distance on China’s location choice of direct investment in the countries along the "Belt and Road".The study finds that China has significant spatial relevance to direct investment activities in countries along the Belt and Road.The direct effects and spatial spillover effects of political institutional distance and economic institutional distance are significantly negative.Moreover,the spatial spillover effect brought by the political institutional distance accounts for more than60% of the total effect,and the spatial spillover effect driven by the economic institutional distance accounts for more than 80 % of the total effect.In addition,this paper believes that in the future,China’s direct investment in the "Belt and Road"countries should focus on countries(especially middle and high income countries)with small institutional distances but insufficient investment and their neighbors.