人民币汇率对FDI流入的影响——外销比例、区域差异和行业差异的视角

Impact of RMB Exchange Rate on Different Types of FDI:From the Perspective of the Product Export Ratio,Regional and Industry Differences

建立了包含产品外销比例的一般均衡两国贸易模型,模型表明FDI最优规模受汇率的影响大小与企业产品外销比例正相关。东道国货币升值和汇率波动性增大对出口导向型FDI流入的抑制大于对市场导向型FDI流入的抑制。该模型从学理上解释了新兴市场高出口依赖度且汇率"害怕浮动"的原因。考虑到FDI分布的区域差异和行业差异,采用1999—2007中国工业企业数据库,构造地区面板和行业面板进行实证分析。研究结果表明,人民币升值有助于限制出口导向型FDI流入。随着中国改革开放新阶段的核心任务转变为优化经济结构和提高经济增长质量,中国应鼓励与国内产业关联性较强的市场导向型FDI流入。同时,克服浮动恐惧,才能更好地发挥人民币汇率在内外经济再平衡中的作用。

This paper establishes a general equilibrium trade model between two countries.In the model,the degree of the impact of exchange rate on optimal size of FDI is directly proportional to the product export ratio.The appreciation of host country’s currency and an increase of exchange rate volatility have a greater inhibitory on export-oriented FDI inflows than market-oriented FDI inflows.The model provides a theoretical explanation for the over dependence on exports and the "fear of floating" exchange rates in emerging markets.Considering the great regional and industry differences in FDI distribution,we construct the regional and industrial panels based on 1999-2007 database of industrial enterprises in China.This study shows that the RMB appreciation depresses export-oriented FDI inflows.With improvements in economic growth quality and structural reforms becoming the main task of China s strategy of reform and opening up at a new stage,the government should encourage market-oriented FDI inflows which have a closer link with domestic industry.Meanwhile,China should overcome the "fear of floating" to let RMB exchange rate play a better role in rebalancing the internal and external economy.