农业大灾风险的科学管理——基于文献研究的风险评估原理、方法与研究展望

Scientific Management of Agricultural Catastrophe Risk——Principles, Methods and Research Prospects of Risk Assessment Based on Literature Research

论文通过回顾和梳理国内外农业大灾风险评估的相关文献,在对"农业大灾""农业大灾风险评估"的内涵进行科学识别的基础上,分析研究了现有的三种农业大灾风险评估方法的基本原理、评估流程、优缺点、适用范围等内容,并对每一种评估方法的应用实践进行了举例说明。基于上述研究结论,论文进一步总结了现有农业大灾风险评估研究中存在的问题,探讨了未来农业大灾管理研究的发展方向,以期为完善我国农业大灾风险管理机制提供决策支持。

Based on reviewing and combing the relevant literatures of agricultural catastrophe risk assessment at home and abroad,this paper,based on the scientific identification of the connotation of"agricultural catastrophe"and"agricultural catastrophe risk assessment",The basic principles,evaluation process,advantages and disadvantages,and application scope of the three existing agricultural catastrophe risk assessment methods are analyzed and studied.An example is given to illustrate the application for each assessment method.Based on the above research conclusions,this article further summarizes the existing problems in the agricultural disaster risk assessment research,discusses the future development direction of agricultural disaster management research,and hopes to provide decision support for improving and strengthening China’s agricultural disaster risk management.