煤炭产能高速发展下的煤矿事故死亡人数预测研究

Research on the prediction of death number in coal mine accidents under the rapid increase of coal production

煤炭是我国的主体能源,在促进经济社会发展乃至实现中华民族伟大复兴的进程中发挥着至关重要的作用,但是煤矿安全问题也不容忽视。通过数据分析和数据建模,建立多因素影响下的煤矿事故死亡人数预测模型,开展煤炭产能优化背景下的安全生产形势预测。根据1949—2021年我国历年煤矿产能和煤矿事故死亡人数的统计数据,分析产能与事故之间的关系,研究煤矿安全生产形势的区域特征,建立预测煤矿事故死亡人数的长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型,并根据该模型对区域产能优化背景下的煤矿事故死亡人数进行了预测。研究结果显示:(1)可以根据我国煤炭产量、事故死亡人数和百万吨死亡率随时间的变化规律,将我国煤炭产业的发展分为初步创立阶段、探索阶段、恢复整顿阶段、体制机制改革阶段和安全高效发展阶段5个时期,受安全政策和产能发展的影响,不同时期的煤矿安全形势差别很大;(2)我国不同省级行政区煤矿产能和安全水平存在很大差异,通过列联表卡方检验分析发现煤矿安全生产的事故数量和事故等级都与事故区域表现出显著的相关关系,不同地区煤矿产能的调整也是影响我国煤矿事故整体形势的关键因素;(3)考虑采煤工艺、机械化程度以及不同区域的煤炭产量构建多因素时间序列预测LSTM模型,可以较为准确地对煤矿事故死亡人数进行预测,预测值和真实值的相关系数R^(2)=0.99,预测数据均方根误差为40.49,预测效果较好;(4)根据模型预测结果,在全国煤炭总产量保持不变的情况下,增加西北地区的产能,而减少东北或西南地区的产能,都会进一步提升煤矿安全生产形势;(5)分析发现产能由西南转移至西北后煤矿死亡人数会有更大幅度的下降,但事故死亡人数降低的效果随着时间的推移而减弱,尽管西北地区煤炭开采条件较好,但仍需重视煤炭产能高速发展下的安全开采风险。研究结果可以为科学制定煤炭产业政策提供参考。

Coal is the main energy source in China.It plays a crucial role in promoting economic and social development,and is the guarantee of China's energy security.This paper establishes a prediction model for the number of deaths in coal mine accidents under the influence of multiple factors through data analysis and modeling.Also,it predicts the safety production situation under the optimization of coal production capacity.Based on the statistical data of coal mine production capacity and the coal mine accident fatalities in China since 1949,the relationship between production capacity and accidents is analyzed.The regional characteristics of coal mine safety production situation is studied and a Long Short-Term Memory Network(LSTM)model is developed for predicting the number of deaths in coal mine accidents.And based on this model,the number of deaths in coal mine accidents under the influence of regional production capacity optimization policies was predicted.The research results show that①based on China's coal production,accident fatalities,and millionton mortality rate over the years,the development of the China's coal industry can be divided into five stages:initial establishment stage,exploration stage,recovery and rectification stage,institutional mechanism reform stage,and safe and efficient development stage.The national coal mine safety situation varies greatly in different periods due to the changes in safety policies and coal mine production capacity;②There are significant differences in the production capacity and safety level of coal mines in different provinces of China.Through the chi square test analysis of contingency tables,the number and level of accidents in coal mine safety production are significantly correlated with the accident area.Therefore,the adjustment of coal mine production capacity in different regions is also a key factor affecting the safety situation of coal mines in China;③Establishing a time series prediction LSTM model that includes factors such as coal mining technology,degree of mechanization,and coal production in different regions can accurately predict the number of deaths in coal mine accidents.The correlation coefficient R^(2)between the true and predicted values is 0.99,the root mean square error of the predicted data is 40.49;④According to the prediction results,while the total coal production remains unchanged,increasing production capacity in the northwest region and reducing production capacity in the northeast or southwest regions will further improve the safety production situation of coal mines;⑤The prediction results indicate that the number of coal mine fatalities will decrease more significantly after the production capacity shifts from southwest to northwest,but the degree of reduction in accident fatalities will decrease with the increase of time.Although the coal mining conditions in the northwest region are relatively good,it is still necessary to pay attention to the safety mining risks under the rapid development of coal production capacity.The research results can provide a reference for scientifically formulating coal industry policies.