我国煤炭供需趋势及开发强度研究

Research on coal supply and demand trend and development intensity of China

通过分析我国煤炭消费变化规律和供应变化特征,研究得出1980年以来,国内煤炭消费可以分为低速增长、低位调整、快速增长和高位调整4个阶段,高位调整阶段后的煤炭消费将呈现一个新趋势,煤炭消费强度和在一次能源消费中的占比不断下降,消费总量也将开始逐步减少;煤炭供应重心西移,进口煤炭成为国内供应重要组成。当前煤炭资源开发强度偏大,需要逐步降低;增加进口,优化煤炭供应结构,能够有效降低国内煤炭开发强度。

By analyzing China’s coal consumption change pattern and supply change characteristics,it is concluded that since 1980,domestic coal consumption can be divided into four stages:low-speed growth,low-level adjustment,rapid growth,and high-level adjustment.Presenting a new trend,the intensity of coal consumption and its share in primary energy consumption will continue to decline,and the total consumption will begin to gradually decrease;the focus of coal supply will move west,and imported coal will become an important component of domestic supply.At present,the development intensity of coal resources is too large and needs to be gradually reduced;increasing imports and optimizing the coal supply structure can effectively reduce the intensity of domestic coal development.