晋陕蒙地区碳排放驱动因素与脱钩效应研究

Study on driving factors of carbon emissions and decoupling effect in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region

高质量建设国家重要能源基地对实现碳达峰碳中和目标、推动经济高质量发展、实现中国式现代化具有重要战略意义。根据1995—2020年长时间序列的能源消费和社会经济数据,对晋陕蒙地区CO_(2)排放进行了核算,结合对数均值Divisia指数(LMDI)模型探究晋陕蒙地区不同时期CO_(2)排放的驱动因素,采用二维脱钩模型分析晋陕蒙地区CO_(2)排放和经济增长的脱钩关系,并对“十四五”时期晋陕蒙地区的脱钩指数进行了预测。结果显示1995—2020年期间,晋陕蒙地区CO_(2)排放总量以年均6.6%的速度增长。经济发展和人口规模对CO_(2)排放起促进作用,能源强度对CO_(2)排放起抑制作用,而能源结构对CO_(2)排放的影响相对较小。晋陕蒙地区的CO_(2)排放和经济发展在不同时期呈现出不同脱钩状态,其中以弱脱钩-经济低水平增长为主。研究结果可为晋陕蒙地区制定节能减排措施和高质量发展政策提供科学支撑。

High-quality construction of national important energy bases is of great strategic significance to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,to promote high-quality economic development,and to realize Chinese-style modernization.In this study,based on the long time series of energy consumption and socio-economic data from 1995 to 2020,CO_(2)emissions in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region are calculated.The driving factors of CO_(2)emissions in different periods are investigated with the LMDI model.Two-dimensional decoupling model is used to analyze the decoupling relationship between CO_(2)emissions and economic growth in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region,and the decoupling index is predicted for the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The results show that during the period of 1995-2020,the total CO_(2)emission in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region increased at an average annual rate of 6.6%.Economic development and population size contribute to the growth of CO_(2)emissions in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region,while energy intensity plays an inhibiting role on CO_(2)emissions.Energy structure has a relatively small effect on CO_(2)emissions of Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region.CO_(2)emissions and economic development in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region show different decoupling states in different periods,with weak decoupling and low-level economic growth as the dominant state.The findings can provide scientific support for the formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction measures and high-quality development policies in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region.