基于状态空间模型的煤炭价格与火力发电量关系实证研究

Empiricalstudy on the relationship between coal price fluctuation and thermal power generation

火力发电量与煤炭价格之间存在长期均衡关系,二者具有显著的联动变化特征。基于状态空间模型理论,建立火力发电和煤炭价格的状态空间模型,分析中国2004—2017年间二者的函数关系。结果表明,二者互为因果关系,煤炭价格波动引发了火力发电的不稳定性,但火力发电量也存在着对煤炭价格的抑制作用,可以相互基于对方变化情况进行预测。建议政府进一步推动煤电一体化改革,完善煤电价格形成机制,加强煤炭市场体系建设,推进以火力发电计划量为基准的煤炭价格预测预警体系的建立。

There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between thermal power generation and coal price,which has a significant linkage change feature.Based on the theory of state space model,the state space model of thermal power generation and coal price is established,and the functional relationship between them is analyzed from 2004 to 2017 in China.The results show that the two are cause and effect relationship,and the fluctuation of coal price causes the instability of thermal power generation,but the thermal power generation also has a restraining effect on the coal price,which can be predicted based on each other’s changes.It is suggested that the government should further promote the reform of coal electricity integration,improve the coal electricity price formation mechanism,strengthen the construction of the coal market system,and promote the establishment of the coal price prediction and early warning system based on the planned thermal power generation.