世界油气市场2022年回顾与2023年展望

Review of global oil and gas market in 2022 and outlook for 2023

对2022年油气市场的发展状况、2023年又将朝向何种趋势发展进行了梳理与总结。2022年,世界油气探明储量小幅上升;油气勘探开发投资萎靡,其中勘探开发投资额较2021年有所上涨,但尚未恢复到新冠疫情前水平,油气勘探区块租赁轮次与油气资源收并购活动降幅明显;世界油气价格大幅波动,全年表现出忽高忽低的走势;世界油气供给能力减弱,尤其是天然气供给同比下降;世界油气需求疲软,多地区油气需求明显下降;世界炼油产业利润、开工率及产量缓慢恢复。展望2023年,随着全球政治环境的缓和,油气勘探开发投资有望稳中看涨;油气价格在经济、油气供需平衡变化的影响下,或将出现短期下跌、长期上涨的趋势;油气供需市场预计在俄罗斯与西方国家的制裁与反制裁政策、OPEC+减产协议等的影响中,进入紧平衡状态;炼油市场的紧张局势将在2022年趋好的影响下逐渐减缓。

This paper analyzes and summarizes the oil and gas market’s development in 2022 and its trend in 2023.The world’s proven oil and gas reserves increased slightly in 2022.The investment in oil and gas exploration and development was weak,as the amount of investment in exploration had increased when compared to 2021,but had not yet recovered to the level before the COVID-19,and the lease rounds of oil and gas exploration blocks and the M&A activities of oil and gas resource had decreased substantially.Throughout the year,oil and gas prices varied significantly,exhibiting a highs and lows alternating pattern.The global oil and gas supply capacity had weakened,particularly the natural gas supply,which had decreased this year.The global demand for oil and gas was low,and the demand for oil and gas in a number of places had decreased dramatically.Margins,refinery utilization rate and refinery throughput of the global oil refinery operations gradually increased.With the global political environment predicted to improve by 2023,it is anticipated that investments in oil and gas exploration and development will increase steadily.Oil and gas prices may decline in the short term and rise in the long term due to changes in the economy and the supply and demand balance for oil and gas.Under the influence of sanctions and anti-sanctions measures of Russia and western nations,OPEC+production reduction agreement,etc.,the oil and gas supply and demand market is likely to reach a tight balance.Under the influence of the 2022 improvement,the tension on the refining market will gradually alleviate.