省域碳转移的空间网络结构特征与影响因素研究

Study on the spatial network structure characteristics and influencing factors of provincial carbon transfer

各省份碳配额分配问题是我国碳交易全面启动后面临的一大难题,并且在“双碳”目标的强约束下,明确和厘清各省碳排放转移路径对地区实现碳减排战略至关重要。基于多区域投入产出模型测算了省域碳转移规模,利用社会网络分析刻画了碳转移网络的空间结构特征,进一步探讨碳转移网络的影响因素。研究发现:(1)2007—2017年,中国省域碳转移规模呈上升态势以及显著的区域非均衡性特征,净碳转出省份多为能源富集型省份和制造业工业大省,净碳转入区域多分布在江浙等沿海发达地区。(2)省域碳转移空间网络具有显著的空间溢出效应和弱稳定性特征;块模型结果表明中东部省份扮演着“桥梁”作用,中部地区和西南区域发挥着“双向溢出”作用。(3)QAP回归结果表明,经济水平和投资消费结构相似的省份之间较易发生碳转移,且环境路径依赖是影响省域碳转移网络结构的最重要因素。

The allocation of carbon quotas in various provinces is a major problem after the full launch of China’s carbon trading,and under the strong constraints of the dual carbon targets,it is crucial to clarify and clarify the transfer path of carbon emissions in various provinces to achieve the regional carbon emission reduction strategy.Based on the multi-regional input-output model,this paper calculates the scale of provincial carbon transfer,uses social network analysis to characterize the spatial structure of carbon transfer network,and further discusses the influencing factors of carbon transfer network.The study found that:①From 2007 to 2017,the scale of China’s provincial carbon transfer showed an upward trend and there was a significant regional imbalance.Most of the net carbon transfer provinces were energy-intensive provinces and manufacturing industry provinces,and the net carbon transfer regions were mainly distributed in coastal developed regions such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang.②The provincial carbon transfer spatial network has significant spatial spillover effect and weak stability characteristics.The block model results show that the central and eastern provinces play a“bridge”role,while the central and southwestern regions play a“two-way spillover”role.③QAP regression results show that carbon transfer is more likely to occur between provinces with similar economic level and investment and consumption structure,and environmental path dependence is the most important factor affecting the structure of provincial carbon transfer network.