碳中和背景下俄罗斯煤炭出口趋势研究

Study on Russian coal export trend under the background of carbon neutralization

煤炭工业长期以来是支撑俄罗斯经济社会发展的主要行业,在俄罗斯国家经济中发挥着重要作用。俄罗斯是我国煤炭进口的主要来源国之一,随着俄罗斯能源强国战略和煤炭东向战略的推行、俄罗斯国内能源消费结构的优化、俄对外贸易政策的调整以及煤运基础设施的逐步改善,俄罗斯煤炭在东亚地区市场的竞争力还将进一步提升。研究俄罗斯煤炭生产、消费、调运及国际贸易现状,定量预测2035年前俄罗斯煤炭可供出口量及运输能力,分析碳中和背景下俄罗斯煤炭出口趋势及流向,为进一步促进中俄能源合作、保障我国能源安全提供决策支撑。

Coal industry has long been the main industry supporting Russia’s economic and social development and plays an important role in Russia’s national economy.Russia is one of the main sources of China’s coal import.With the implementation of Russia’s energy power strategy and coal Eastward Strategy,the optimization of Russia’s domestic energy consumption structure,the adjustment of Russia’s foreign trade policy,and the gradual improvement of coal transportation infrastructure,the competitiveness of Russian coal in the East Asian market will be further improved.This paper aims to find out the current situation of Russian coal production,consumption,transportation and international trade,quantitatively predict the available export volume and transportation capacity of Russian coal before 2035,and analyze the export trend and flow direction of Russian coal under the background of carbon neutralization,so as to provide decision support for further promoting China Russia energy cooperation and ensuring China’s energy security.