公众减排意识对自愿减排项目的动态效应研究

Research on the Dynamic Effect of Public Awareness of Emission Reduction on China Certified Emission Reduction Project

中国自愿减排项目有助于实现中国碳达峰以及碳中和目标,而经济发展水平、公众节能减排意识影响自愿减排项目发展,从而研究三者之间的动态影响效应具有理论及现实意义。通过构建面板数据向量自回归模型,提取中国自愿减排项目、公众对节能减排的关注度以及人均国民生产总值三者之间动态的内生性关系。结果表明:公众对节能减排问题关注度的提高有利于自愿减排项目的落地,但对自愿减排项目的减排量的影响效果不显著,即公众注重自愿减排项目的数量而非质量。经济发展水平的提高在短期内抑制减排项目的落地,但在长期内对其具有积极的作用。自愿减排项目的落地有利于提高公众的节能减排意识但对经济增加的促进作用并不明显。这为促进中国自愿减排项目落地、节能减排、改善生态环境提供了一定的科学支持。

China Certified Emission Reduction Project help to achieve China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,while the level of economic development and public awareness of energy conservation and emission reduction affect the development of China Certified Emission Reduction Project,so it is theoretically possible to study the dynamic effects between the three.By constructing a panel data vector autoregressive model,the dynamic endogenous relationship between China Certified Emission Reduction Project,public attention to energy conservation and emission reduction,and per capita GDP is extracted.The results show that the increase of public attention to energy conservation and emission reduction is conducive to the implementation of China Certified Emission Reduction Project,but the impact on the emission reduction of China Certified Emission Reduction Project,that is,the public pays attention to the quantity of voluntary emission reduction projects rather than the quality.The improvement of economic development level inhibits the implementation of emission reduction projects in the short term,but has a positive effect on it in the long run.The implementation of China Certified Emission Reduction Project is conducive to improving the public’s awareness of energy conservation and emission reduction,but the promotion of economic growth is not obvious.This provides certain scientific support for promoting the implementation of China Certified Emission Reduction Project,energy conservation and emission reduction,and improvement of the ecological environment.