黄河流域水-能源复合生态效率评价及影响因素研究——兼与长江经济带的比较

Study on evaluation and influencing factors of water-energy compound eco-efficiency in the Yellow River Basin——Comparison with the Yangtze River Economic Belt

水资源短缺与能源富集是影响黄河流域生态效率主要因素。采用Malmquist-Luenberger指数,以全社会用水量、能源消费量等作为生态投入,考虑森林覆盖率等生态期望产出以及二氧化碳排放、废水排放量等环境非期望产出,测度中国省级层面水—能源复合生态效率。以2004—2017年黄河流域9个省份为样本进行研究,并与全国总体水平、长江经济带11个省份进行比较,结果表明:①黄河流域生态效率总体低于全国和长江经济带,但2011年以来迅速改善,2017年生态效率高于全国及长江经济带;②黄河流域内部生态效率差异明显,2017年黄河流域生态效率大体呈斜"川"型,东、西部用水效率较高,中部除宁夏外生态效率较低;③环境库兹尼茨曲线检验显示黄河流域、全国总体、及长江经济带生态效率与经济增长存在显著的"U"型关系,提高人均GDP对于黄河流域生态效率改善最为明显;④环境压力模型检验显示黄河流域生态效率主要受规模效应和结构效应的影响,生态效率与经济发展水平、人均耕地面积、产业结构升级指数、制造业占比正相关而与矿产资源储量指数等微弱负相关。

Water shortage and energy enrichment are the main factors affecting the ecological efficiency of the Yellow River Basin.Adopting the Malmquist-Luenberger index,taking the water consumption and energy consumption of the whole society as ecological inputs,taking into account the expected ecological output such as forest coverage and the environmental undesired output such as carbon dioxide emissions and waste water discharge,to measure the Water—Energy compound ecological efficiency at the provincial level in China.Taking the samples of 9 provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2004 to 2017 as a sample,it is compared with the overall national level and 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,The results show that:①The ecological efficiency of the Yellow River Basin is generally lower than that of the whole country and the Yangtze River Economic Zone,but has improved rapidly since 2011,and the ecological efficiency of 2017 is higher than that of the whole country and the Yangtze River Economic Zone.②The ecological efficiency of the Yellow River Basin has obvious differences.In 2017,the ecological efficiency of the Yellow River Basin was generally oblique"Chuan",with higher water use efficiency in the east and west,and lower ecological efficiency in the central area except Ningxia.③Environmental Kuznitz curve test shows that the ecological efficiency of the Yellow River Basin,the whole country,and the Yangtze River Economic Belt have a significant U-shaped relationship with economic growth.Increasing per capita GDP is the most obvious for improving the ecological efficiency of the Yellow River Basin.④The environmental pressure model test shows that the ecological efficiency of the Yellow River Basin is mainly affected by the scale effect and structural effect.Eco-efficiency is positively correlated with economic development level,per capita arable land area,industrial structure upgrading index,and the proportion of manufacturing industry,but has a weak negative correlation with mineral resource reserves index.